. 2025 Oct 14;15:35862. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-21097-0

Table 3.

Marginal direct impacts, indirect (Spillover) impacts and total impacts for (A) measles cases derived from GSAR-Poisson Model, and (B) measles costs per capita derived from GSAR-Gamma Model. Numbers in bold reflects that the parameter Estimation is significant at the 95% confidence level.

	(A) Measles cases—GSAR-Poisson	(B) Measles costs per capita—GSAR-Gamma
MMR level reduction % ()	1.58 (1.46, 1.69)	3.10 (2.92, 3.28)	4.67 (4.45, 4.89)	0.27 (0.20, 0.35)	0.47 (0.34, 0.61)	0.75 (0.54, 0.96)
Transmissibility ()
0.4 (Low level)	− 6.75 (− 8.23, − 5.24)	− 13.25 (− 16.02, − 10.51)	− 19.99 (− 24.22, − 15.74)	− 3.14 (− 4.88, − 1.41)	− 5.44 (− 8.47, − 2.46)	− 8.58 (− 13.34, − 3.82)
0.6 (High level)	4.94 (3.64, 6.21)	9.69 (7.20, 12.29)	14.63 (10.85, 18.50)	1.62 (− 0.22, 3.44)	2.80 (− 0.39, 5.91)	4.42 (− 0.61, 9.36)
Home isolation/quarantine compliance % ()
85 (Median level)	− 3.43 (− 4.62, − 2.15)	− 6.73 (− 9.17, -4.25)	− 10.16 (− 13.80, − 6.38)	− 1.93 (− 3.55, − 0.15)	− 3.34 (− 6.08, − 0.25)	− 5.28 (− 9.65, − 0.40)
95 (High level)	− 7.63 (− 9.10, − 6.19)	− 15.00 (− 17.80, − 12.34)	− 22.63 (− 26.86, − 18.49)	− 3.09 (− 4.77, − 1.38)	− 5.35 (− 8.29, − 2.44)	− 8.43 (− 13.19, − 3.81)
Average household annual income (in thousand US$)	1.08 (0.07, 2.03)	2.12 (0.14, 3.86)	3.20 (0.21, 5.79)	1.72 (0.53, 2.83)	2.98 (0.92, 4.91)	4.70 (1.46, 7.79)
Proportion of male	3.55 (2.84, 4.22)	6.97 (5.52, 8.45)	10.52 (8.43, 12.60)	1.31 (0.53, 2.01)	2.27 (0.87, 3.56)	3.58 (1.39, 5.06)
Proportion of children under 5 years old	1.49 (0.65, 2.36)	2.93 (1.25, 4.73)	4.42 (1.90, 7.11)	1.83 (0.81, 2.77)	3.17 (1.40, 4.88)	5.00 (2.21, 7.67)
Proportion of employed population	− 3.72 (− 5.05, − 2.52)	− 7.32 (− 9.73, − 4.99)	− 11.04 (− 14.73, − 7.58)	− 1.46 (− 2.82, − 0.07)	− 2.53 (− 4.96, − 0.12)	− 4.00 (− 7.71, − 0.20)

(A) Measles cases—GSAR-Poisson

(B) Measles costs per capita—GSAR-Gamma

Direct impact (95% CI)
Inline graphic

Indirect impact
(95% CI)
Inline graphic

Total impact
(95% CI)
Inline graphic

Direct impact
(95% CI)

Indirect impact
(95% CI)

Total impact
(95% CI)

MMR level reduction % ( Inline graphic

)

1.58

(1.46, 1.69)

3.10

(2.92, 3.28)

4.67

(4.45, 4.89)

0.27

(0.20, 0.35)

0.47

(0.34, 0.61)

0.75

(0.54, 0.96)

Transmissibility ( Inline graphic

)

0.4 (Low level)

− 6.75

(− 8.23, − 5.24)

− 13.25

(− 16.02, − 10.51)

− 19.99

(− 24.22, − 15.74)

− 3.14

(− 4.88, − 1.41)

− 5.44

(− 8.47, − 2.46)

− 8.58

(− 13.34, − 3.82)

0.6 (High level)

4.94

(3.64, 6.21)

9.69

(7.20, 12.29)

14.63

(10.85, 18.50)

1.62

(− 0.22, 3.44)

2.80

(− 0.39, 5.91)

4.42

(− 0.61, 9.36)

Home isolation/quarantine compliance % ( Inline graphic

)

85 (Median level)

− 3.43

(− 4.62, − 2.15)

− 6.73

(− 9.17, -4.25)

− 10.16

(− 13.80, − 6.38)

− 1.93

(− 3.55, − 0.15)

− 3.34

(− 6.08, − 0.25)

− 5.28

(− 9.65, − 0.40)

95 (High level)

− 7.63

(− 9.10, − 6.19)

− 15.00

(− 17.80, − 12.34)

− 22.63

(− 26.86, − 18.49)

− 3.09

(− 4.77, − 1.38)

− 5.35

(− 8.29, − 2.44)

− 8.43

(− 13.19, − 3.81)

Average household annual income (in thousand US$)

1.08

(0.07, 2.03)

2.12

(0.14, 3.86)

3.20

(0.21, 5.79)

1.72

(0.53, 2.83)

2.98

(0.92, 4.91)

4.70

(1.46, 7.79)

Proportion of male

3.55

(2.84, 4.22)

6.97

(5.52, 8.45)

10.52

(8.43, 12.60)

1.31

(0.53, 2.01)

2.27

(0.87, 3.56)

3.58

(1.39, 5.06)

Proportion of children under 5 years old

1.49

(0.65, 2.36)

2.93

(1.25, 4.73)

4.42

(1.90, 7.11)

1.83

(0.81, 2.77)

3.17

(1.40, 4.88)

5.00

(2.21, 7.67)

Proportion of employed population

− 3.72

(− 5.05, − 2.52)

− 7.32

(− 9.73, − 4.99)

− 11.04

(− 14.73, − 7.58)

− 1.46

(− 2.82, − 0.07)

− 2.53

(− 4.96, − 0.12)

− 4.00

(− 7.71, − 0.20)