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. 2025 Oct 24;25:3597. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-24814-6

Table 2.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on female homicide rates per 100,000 women through ITS analysis series estimated by the quasi-Poisson regression model (January 2017 to December 2022)

Variable Categories Interpretation β SE RRa CI95%b p-value
Locality North*
β1 Stationary trend −0.0047 0.0028 0.995 0.989–1.001 0.0981
β2 Not detected −0.1138 0.0877 0.892 0.751–1.059 0.1990
β3 Not detected −0.0027 0.0021 0.997 0.993–1.001 0.2080
Northeast**
β1 Downward trend −0.0084 0.0019 0.992 0.988–0.995 0.0001
β2 Abrupt increase 0.2122 0.0543 1.236 1.111–1.375 0.0002
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0077 0.0014 0.992 0.989–0.994 0.0000
Southeast***
β1 Downward trend −0.0089 0.0019 0.991 0.987–0.995 0.0001
β2 Not detected 0.0776 0.0594 1.081 0.961–1.214 0.1960
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0071 0.0015 0.993 0.990–0.995 0.0000
South**
β1 Downward trend −0.0073 0.0023 0.993 0.988–0.997 0.0037
β2 Not detected −0.0475 0.0815 0.954 0.8128–1.1186 0.5610
β3 Not detected −0.0008 0.0020 0.999 0.9952–1.0031 0.6760
Midwest*
β1 Downward trend −0.0090 0.0031 0.991 0.985–0.997 0.0060
β2 Not detected 0.0584 0.0975 1.060 0.87–1.283 0.5509
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0056 0.0023 0.994 0.989–0.998 0.0188
Brazil***
β1 Downward trend −0.0080 0.0012 0.992 0.989–0.994 0.0000
β2 Not detected 0.0622 0.0387 1.064 0.986–1.147 0.1122
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0051 0.0009 0.995 0.993–0.996 0.0000
Age group (years) 10 to 14***
β1 Downward trend −0.0108 0.0046 0.989 0.980–0.998 0.0233
β2 Not detected −0.0692 0.1485 0.933 0.697–1.248 0.6426
β3 Not detected −0.0063 0.0036 0.994 0.987–1.001 0.0865
15 to 19 ***
β1 Downward trend −0.0129 0.0028 0.987 0.982–0.993 0.0000
β2 Not detected 0.1686 0.0923 1.183 0.987–1.418 0.0723
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0124 0.0023 0.987 0.983–0.992 0.0000
20 to 39***
β1 Downward trend −0.0082 0.0014 0.992 0.989–0.994 0.0000
β2 Not detected 0.0768 0.0481 1.079 0.982–1.186 0.1152
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0043 0.0012 0.995 0.993–0.998 0.0005
40 to 59***
β1 Stationary trend −0.0038 0.0020 0.996 0.992-1.000 0.0673
β2 Not detected −0.0555 0.0587 0.946 0.843–1.06 0.3481
β3 Not detected −0.0011 0.0015 0.998 0.996–1.001 0.4650
60 or more***
β1 Downward trend −0.0081 0.0029 0.992 0.986–0.998 0.0081
β2 Not detected 0.1511 0.0990 1.163 0.957–1.412 0.1319
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0075 0.0024 0.992 0.987–0.997 0.0033
Methods Firearm ***
β1 Downward trend −0.0128 0.0017 0.987 0.984–0.991 0.0000
β2 Abrupt increase 0.1308 0.0587 1.139 1.015–1.278 0.0295
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0087 0.0014 0.991 0.988–0.994 0.0000
Blunt objects**
β1 Stationary trend 0.0007 0.0014 1.001 0.9980–1.003 0.5983
β2 Not detected −0.0677 0.0522 0.934 0.843–1.035 0.2000
β3 Not detected 0.0013 0.0013 1.001 0.998–1.004 0.3329
Place of occurrence At home***
β1 Downward trend −0.004 0.0015 0.995 0.992–0.998 0.0030
β2 Not detected 0.0777 0.0525 1.080 0.975–1.198 0.1437
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0037 0.0013 0.996 0.993–0.998 0.0057
Public Space**
β1 Downward trend −0.0113 0.0020 0.988 0.985–0.993 0.0000
β2 Not detected 0.1202 0.0648 1.127 0.993–1.280 0.0682
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0081 0.0016 0.991 0.988–0.995 0.0000

aβ (Beta)estimated coefficient from the quasi-Poisson regression model using a log link function, β1-pre-intervention trend, β2- represents the immediate level change at pandemic onset; β3- quantifies the slope change following that intervention

bSE (Standard Error): standard error of the estimated β, indicating the precision of the coefficient estimate

cRR (Rate Ratio): exponential of β (exp(β))

d95% CI: 95% confidence interval for the RR, calculated as exp(β ± 1.96 × SE)

*model without seasonality and without lags in the autoregressive process

** model with seasonality and with 1 lag in the autoregressive process (AR(1))

*** model without seasonality and with 1 lag in the autoregressive process (AR(1))

Source: Mortality Information System (SIM/SUS) | National Bureau of Statistics (IBGE)