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. 2025 Oct 24;25:3597. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-24814-6

Table 3.

Sensitivity analysis analysis of the interrupted time series model, comparing the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, with the beginning in September 2019

BP (Jan 2017 to Feb 2020) and DP (Marc 2020 to Dec 2022) Sensitivity analysis- BP (Jan 2019 to Fev 2020) DP (March 2020 to Feb 2021)
Variable Categories Interpretation β SE p-value Categories Interpretation β SE p-value
Locality North* North*
β1 Stationary trend −0.0047 0.0028 0.995 β1 Stationary trend 0.0126 0.0139 0.3750
β2 Not detected −0.1138 0.0877 0.1990 β2 Not detected −0.1879 0.1706 0.2830
β3 Not detected −0.0027 0.0021 0.2080 β3 Not detected −0.0143 0.0231 0.5410
Northeast** Northeast****
β1 Downward trend −0.0084 0.0019 0.0001 β1 Stationary trend 0.0233 0.0140 0.1170
β2 Abrupt increase 0.2122 0.0543 0.0002 β2 Not detected 0.0339 0.1600 0.8348
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0077 0.0014 0.0000 β3 Not detected −0.0234 0.0114 0.0574
Southeast*** Southeast***
β1 Downward trend −0.0089 0.0019 0.0001 β1 Stationary trend 0.0131 0.0097 0.1930
β2 Not detected 0.0776 0.0594 0.1960 β2 Not detected −0.1192 0.1040 0.2650
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0071 0.0015 0.0000 β3 Not detected −0.0082 0.0143 0.5740
South** South*
β1 Downward trend −0.0073 0.0023 0.0037 β1 Stationary trend −0.0047 0.0123 0.7040
β2 Not detected −0.0475 0.0815 0.5610 β2 Not detected 0.0158 0.1498 0.9170
β3 Not detected −0.0008 0.0020 0.6760 β3 Not detected −0.0050 0.0202 0.8070
Midwest* Midwest*
β1 Downward trend −0.0090 0.0031 0.0060 β1 Stationary trend −0.0243 0.0148 0.1152
β2 Not detected 0.0584 0.0975 0.5509 β2 Not detected −0.0738 0.1857 0.6949
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0056 0.0023 0.0188 β3 Progressive increase 0.0605 0.0237 0.0182
Brazil*** Brazil****
β1 Downward trend −0.0080 0.0012 0.0000 β1 Stationary trend 0.0046 0.0050 0.3665
β2 Not detected 0.0622 0.0387 0.1122 β2 Not detected 0.0039 0.0703 0.9567
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0051 0.0009 0.0000 β3 Not detected −0.0063 0.0075 0.4117
Age group (years) 10 to 14*** 10 to 14**
β1 Downward trend −0.0108 0.0046 0.0233 β1 Stationary trend 0.0233 0.0252 0.3660
β2 Not detected −0.0692 0.1485 0.6426 β2 Not detected −0.1282 0.2737 0.6450
β3 Not detected −0.0063 0.0036 0.0865 β3 Not detected −0.0259 0.0392 0.5170
15 to 19 *** 15 to 19**
β1 Downward trend −0.0129 0.0028 0.0000 β1 Stationary trend 0.0101 0.0152 0.5160
β2 Not detected 0.1686 0.0923 0.0723 β2 Not detected −0.0293 0.2138 0.8920
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0124 0.0023 0.0000 β3 Not detected 0.0078 0.0229 0.7360
20 to 39*** 20 to 29**
β1 Downward trend −0.0082 0.0014 0.0000 β1 Stationary trend −0.0018 0.0063 0.7781
β2 Not detected 0.0768 0.0481 0.1152 β2 Not detected 0.1169 0.0888 0.2045
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0043 0.0012 0.0005 β3 Not detected −0.0057 0.0096 0.5637
40 to 59*** 40 to 59*
β1 Stationary trend −0.0038 0.0020 0.0673 β1 Stationary trend 0.0135 0.0086 0.1282
β2 Not detected −0.0555 0.0587 0.3481 β2 Not detected −0.1953 0.1039 0.0734
β3 Not detected −0.0011 0.0015 0.4650 β3 Not detected −0.0055 0.0139 0.6958
60 or more*** 60 or more years**
β1 Downward trend −0.0081 0.0029 0.0081 β1 Stationary trend 0.0155 0.0154 0.3251
β2 Not detected 0.1511 0.0990 0.1319 β2 Not detected −0.3724 0.2128 0.0972
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0075 0.0024 0.0033 β3 Not detected 0.0387 0.0232 0.1139
Methods Firearm *** Firearm***
β1 Downward trend −0.0128 0.0017 0.0000 β1 Stationary trend 0.0011 0.0053 0.8381
β2 Abrupt increase 0.1308 0.0587 0.0295 β2 Not detected 0.0171 0.0747 0.8217
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0087 0.0014 0.0000 β3 Not detected −0.0034 0.0080 0.6788
Blunt objects** Blunt objects*
β1 Stationary trend 0.0007 0.0014 0.5983 β1 Stationary trend 0.0130 0.0072 0.0866
β2 Not detected −0.0677 0.0522 0.2000 β2 Abrupt decrease −0.2059 0.0876 0.0281
β3 Not detected 0.0013 0.0013 0.3329 β3 Not detected 0.0036 0.0117 0.7610
Place of occurrence At home*** At home***
β1 Downward trend −0.004 0.0015 0.0030 β1 Stationary trend 0.0015 0.0105 0.8915
β2 Not detected 0.0777 0.0525 0.1437 β2 Not detected 0.0494 0.1339 0.7167
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0037 0.0013 0.0057 β3 Not detected −0.0053 0.0120 0.6619
Public Space** Public Space**
β1 Downward trend −0.0113 0.0020 0.0000 β1 Stationary trend −0.0021 0.0116 0.8607
β2 Not detected 0.1202 0.0648 0.0682 β2 Not detected 0.2069 0.1304 0.1334
β3 Progressive decrease −0.0081 0.0016 0.0000 β3 Not detected −0.0195 0.0101 0.0708

aβ (Beta) estimated coefficient from the quasi-Poisson regression model using a log link function, β1-pre-intervention trend, β2- represents the immediate level change at pandemic onset, β3- quantifies the slope change following that intervention

 bSE (Standard Error): standard error of the estimated β, indicating the precision of the coefficient estimate

cRR (Rate Ratio): exponential of β (exp(β))

d95% CI: 95% confidence interval for the RR, calculated as exp(β ± 1.96 × SE)

*model without seasonality and without lags in the autoregressive process

** model with seasonality and with 1 lag in the autoregressive process (AR(1))

*** model without seasonality and with 1 lag in the autoregressive process (AR(1))

**** model without seasonality and with 2 lag in the autoregressive process (AR(2))