Table 3.
Risk score performance in the derivation cohort and the validation cohort (data shown are percentages)
| Derivation cohort [n = 1588] | Validation cohort [n = 796] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | No. of patients (Proportion) | SE | SP | PPV | NPV | AC | PLR | NLR | Score | No. of patients (Proportion) | SE | SP | PPV | NPV | AC | PLR | NLR |
| ≥ -4 | 1588 (100.0) | 100.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | NaN | 7.9 | 1.00 | NaN | ≥ – 4 | 796 (100.0) | 100.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | NaN | 8.2 | 1.00 | NaN |
| ≥ -2 | 1492 (94.0) | 100.0 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 100.0 | 14.0 | 1.07 | 0.00 | ≥ – 2 | 741 (93.1) | 100.0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 100.0 | 15.1 | 1.08 | 0.00 |
| ≥ -1 | 1480 (93.2) | 100.0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 100.0 | 14.7 | 1.08 | 0.00 | ≥ – 1 | 732 (92.0) | 100.0 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 100.0 | 16.2 | 1.10 | 0.00 |
| ≥ 0 | 1184 (74.6) | 94.4 | 27.2 | 10.1 | 98.3 | 32.5 | 1.30 | 0.20 | ≥ 0 | 604 (75.9) | 95.4 | 25.9 | 10.3 | 98.4 | 31.5 | 1.29 | 0.18 |
| ≥ 1 | 1159 (73.0) | 94.4 | 28.9 | 10.3 | 98.4 | 34.1 | 1.33 | 0.19 | ≥ 1 | 597 (75.0) | 95.4 | 26.8 | 10.4 | 98.5 | 32.4 | 1.30 | 0.17 |
| ≥ 2 | 1090 (68.6) | 93.7 | 33.5 | 10.8 | 98.4 | 38.3 | 1.41 | 0.19 | ≥ 1 | 545 (68.5) | 93.8 | 33.8 | 11.2 | 98.4 | 38.7 | 1.42 | 0.18 |
| ≥ 3 | 829 (52.2) | 84.9 | 50.6 | 12.9 | 97.5 | 53.3 | 1.72 | 0.30 | ≥ 3 | 467 (58.7) | 90.8 | 44.2 | 12.6 | 98.2 | 48.0 | 1.63 | 0.21 |
| ≥ 4 | 610 (38.4) | 79.4 | 65.1 | 16.4 | 97.3 | 66.3 | 2.28 | 0.32 | ≥ 4 | 401 (50.4) | 89.2 | 53.1 | 14.5 | 98.2 | 56.0 | 1.90 | 0.20 |
| ≥ 5 | 521 (32.8) | 74.6 | 70.8 | 18.0 | 97.0 | 71.1 | 2.55 | 0.36 | ≥ 5 | 336 (42.2) | 83.1 | 61.4 | 16.1 | 97.6 | 63.2 | 2.15 | 0.28 |
| ≥ 6 | 438 (27.6) | 68.3 | 75.9 | 19.6 | 96.5 | 75.3 | 2.83 | 0.42 | ≥ 6 | 248 (31.2) | 67.7 | 72.1 | 17.7 | 96.2 | 71.7 | 2.43 | 0.45 |
| ≥ 7 | 253 (15.9) | 51.6 | 87.1 | 25.7 | 95.4 | 84.3 | 4.01 | 0.56 | ≥ 7 | 171 (21.5) | 61.5 | 82.1 | 23.4 | 96.0 | 80.4 | 3.43 | 0.47 |
| ≥ 8 | 208 (13.1) | 44.4 | 89.6 | 26.9 | 94.9 | 86.0 | 4.27 | 0.62 | ≥ 8 | 147 (18.5) | 55.4 | 84.8 | 24.5 | 95.5 | 82.4 | 3.65 | 0.53 |
| ≥ 9 | 127 (8.0) | 29.4 | 93.8 | 29.1 | 93.9 | 88.7 | 4.77 | 0.75 | ≥ 9 | 79 (9.9) | 29.2 | 91.8 | 24.1 | 93.6 | 86.7 | 3.56 | 0.77 |
| ≥ 10 | 98 (6.2) | 24.6 | 95.4 | 31.6 | 93.6 | 89.9 | 5.37 | 0.79 | ≥ 10 | 57 (7.2) | 23.1 | 94.3 | 26.3 | 93.2 | 88.4 | 4.02 | 0.82 |
| ≥ 11 | 75 (4.7) | 19.8 | 96.6 | 33.3 | 93.3 | 90.5 | 5.80 | 0.83 | ≥ 11 | 31 (4.0) | 15.4 | 97.1 | 32.3 | 92.8 | 90.5 | 5.36 | 0.87 |
| ≥ 12 | 37 (2.3) | 11.1 | 98.4 | 37.8 | 92.8 | 91.5 | 7.06 | 0.90 | ≥ 12 | 24 (3.0) | 13.8 | 97.9 | 37.5 | 92.7 | 91.1 | 6.75 | 0.88 |
| ≥ 13 | 29 (1.8) | 10.3 | 98.9 | 44.8 | 92.8 | 91.9 | 9.43 | 0.91 | ≥ 13 | 15 (1.9) | 10.8 | 98.9 | 46.7 | 92.6 | 91.7 | 9.84 | 0.90 |
| ≥ 14 | 7 (0.4) | 2.4 | 99.7 | 42.9 | 92.2 | 92.0 | 8.70 | 0.98 | ≥ 14 | 5 (0.6) | 4.6 | 99.7 | 60.0 | 92.2 | 92.0 | 16.87 | 0.96 |
| ≥ 15 | 6 (0.4) | 1.6 | 99.7 | 33.3 | 92.2 | 92.0 | 5.85 | 0.99 | ≥ 15 | 4 (0.5) | 3.1 | 99.7 | 50.0 | 92.0 | 91.8 | 11.25 | 0.97 |
| ≥ 16 | 4 (0.3) | 0.8 | 99.8 | 25.0 | 92.1 | 91.9 | 3.87 | 0.99 | ≥ 16 | 3 (0.4) | 3.1 | 99.9 | 66.7 | 92.1 | 92.0 | 22.49 | 0.97 |
| ≥ 18 | 1 (0.1) | 1.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 91.9 | 92.0 | Inf | 0.98 | |||||||||
n Number of patients, No. Number, SE Sensitivity, SP Specificity, PPV Positive Predictive Value, NPV Negative Predictive Value, AC Accuracy, PLR Positive Likelihood Ratio, NLR Negative Likelihood Ratio, NaN Not a Number, Inf Infinity