Table 2.
Changes in welfare (equivalent variation, $US million).
| Country | SO1 | SO2 | LO1 | LO2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | −310.0 | −563.0 | −10,905.0 | −11,413.0 |
| Canada | 45.1 | 90.5 | 320.0 | 423.0 |
| Mexico | 24.1 | 55.9 | 120.0 | 207.0 |
| Brazil | 10.3 | 31.1 | 154.0 | 216.0 |
| China and Hong Kong | −31.1 | −54.9 | −72.0 | −111.0 |
| Rest of Asia and Oceania | −108.0 | −191.0 | −349.0 | −480.0 |
| South and Southeast Asia | −18.0 | −32.9 | −77.1 | −103.0 |
| Central and South America | 1.7 | 2.1 | 61.7 | 61.2 |
| Europe | 62.5 | 109.0 | 141.0 | 221.0 |
| Middle East and North Africa | 44.8 | 69.9 | −3.6 | 21.3 |
| Central and Southern Africa | −9.7 | −18.6 | −21.8 | −38.6 |
Source: Authors’ simulations.
Scenario SO1 considers a hog and pork production decrease of 0.044% and an export loss of 20%. Scenario SO2 assumes the same production decrease, but considers an export loss of 40%. Scenario LO1 combines a hog and pork production decrease of 7.33% with an export loss of 40%. Scenario LO2 represents the worst-case scenario, with a decrease in hog and pork production of 7.33% and an export loss of 80%.