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. 2026 Feb 6;18:73. doi: 10.1186/s13098-026-02090-7

Table 3.

Hazard ratios for incident chronic diseases according to quartiles of the modified cardiometabolic index (MCMI)

Outcome MCMI Quartile Model 1 h (95% CI) P-value Model 2 h (95% CI) P-value Model 3 h (95% CI) P-value
Hypertension Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 1.17 (1.01–1.37) 0.036 1.21 (1.04–1.40) 0.015 1.22 (1.04–1.41) 0.012
Q3 1.48 (1.28–1.72) < 0.001 1.58 (1.36–1.84) < 0.001 1.59 (1.37–1.85) < 0.001
Q4 2.25 (1.95–2.60) < 0.001 2.40 (2.07–2.78) < 0.001 2.41 (2.08–2.80) < 0.001
Diabetes Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 1.27 (0.95–1.69) 0.104 1.25 (0.94–1.66) 0.130 1.23 (0.92–1.64) 0.154
Q3 2.08 (1.60–2.71) < 0.001 2.05 (1.57–2.67) < 0.001 1.96 (1.50–2.56) < 0.001
Q4 4.45 (3.49–5.67) < 0.001 4.32 (3.37–5.54) < 0.001 4.06 (3.16–5.22) < 0.001
Cancer Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 0.77 (0.49–1.22) 0.261 0.73 (0.46–1.15) 0.175 0.72 (0.45–1.14) 0.159
Q3 0.86 (0.55–1.35) 0.521 0.79 (0.50–1.24) 0.298 0.75 (0.48–1.19) 0.221
Q4 1.04 (0.68–1.59) 0.864 0.88 (0.57–1.37) 0.574 0.81 (0.52–1.27) 0.362
Lung Disease Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 1.03 (0.85–1.24) 0.795 1.06 (0.88–1.28) 0.534 1.04 (0.86–1.26) 0.667
Q3 0.97 (0.81–1.18) 0.786 1.05 (0.86–1.27) 0.649 0.97 (0.80–1.18) 0.790
Q4 0.97 (0.80–1.17) 0.725 1.05 (0.87–1.28) 0.596 0.92 (0.76–1.13) 0.435
Heart Disease Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 1.38 (1.15–1.66) 0.001 1.32 (1.10–1.59) 0.003 1.30 (1.08–1.57) 0.006
Q3 1.37 (1.13–1.65) 0.001 1.28 (1.06–1.55) 0.010 1.22 (1.01–1.48) 0.039
Q4 1.64 (1.37–1.97) < 0.001 1.49 (1.23–1.79) < 0.001 1.37 (1.13–1.66) 0.001
Stroke Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 1.62 (1.21–2.15) 0.001 1.66 (1.24–2.21) 0.001 1.64 (1.23–2.19) 0.001
Q3 1.83 (1.38–2.43) < 0.001 1.94 (1.46–2.57) < 0.001 1.86 (1.40–2.47) < 0.001
Q4 2.57 (1.97–3.36) < 0.001 2.73 (2.08–3.60) < 0.001 2.51 (1.90–3.32) < 0.001
Psychological Problem Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 1.38 (0.95–2.03) 0.094 1.28 (0.88–1.88) 0.199 1.27 (0.86–1.86) 0.228
Q3 1.14 (0.77–1.70) 0.517 1.01 (0.67–1.50) 0.974 0.90 (0.60–1.35) 0.605
Q4 1.07 (0.72–1.60) 0.735 0.87 (0.58–1.32) 0.518 0.76 (0.50–1.16) 0.202
Arthritis Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 1.19 (1.03–1.38) 0.017 1.17 (1.01–1.35) 0.034 1.16 (1.01–1.35) 0.042
Q3 1.09 (0.94–1.27) 0.245 1.10 (0.94–1.27) 0.226 1.08 (0.93–1.26) 0.322
Q4 1.05 (0.90–1.22) 0.516 1.03 (0.88–1.20) 0.733 1.00 (0.85–1.17) 0.997
Dyslipidemia Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 1.29 (1.07–1.57) 0.008 1.29 (1.07–1.57) 0.008 1.30 (1.07–1.58) 0.008
Q3 1.88 (1.57–2.25) < 0.001 1.84 (1.53–2.20) < 0.001 1.77 (1.47–2.12) < 0.001
Q4 2.99 (2.52–3.56) < 0.001 2.94 (2.46–3.51) < 0.001 2.84 (2.38–3.40) < 0.001
Liver Disease Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 0.86 (0.65–1.13) 0.271 0.88 (0.67–1.15) 0.346 0.86 (0.66–1.13) 0.286
Q3 1.06 (0.82–1.37) 0.678 1.08 (0.83–1.41) 0.547 1.01 (0.77–1.31) 0.969
Q4 1.20 (0.93–1.54) 0.163 1.25 (0.96–1.62) 0.094 1.11 (0.85–1.44) 0.439
Kidney Disease Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 0.87 (0.68–1.10) 0.236 0.90 (0.71–1.15) 0.406 0.87 (0.69–1.11) 0.264
Q3 1.12 (0.90–1.40) 0.321 1.19 (0.95–1.50) 0.126 1.10 (0.88–1.39) 0.394
Q4 1.11 (0.89–1.39) 0.357 1.22 (0.97–1.53) 0.091 1.06 (0.84–1.34) 0.606
Digestive Disease Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 0.88 (0.75–1.04) 0.143 0.86 (0.72–1.01) 0.066 0.85 (0.72–1.00.72.00) 0.053
Q3 0.95 (0.81–1.12) 0.540 0.91 (0.77–1.08) 0.287 0.88 (0.75–1.04) 0.135
Q4 0.84 (0.72–1.00.72.00) 0.046 0.79 (0.67–0.94) 0.008 0.74 (0.62–0.88) 0.001
Asthma Q1 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Q2 0.88 (0.63–1.23) 0.456 0.91 (0.66–1.27) 0.593 0.90 (0.64–1.26) 0.531
Q3 0.90 (0.65–1.25) 0.540 0.99 (0.71–1.38) 0.949 0.92 (0.66–1.29) 0.643
Q4 1.07 (0.78–1.46) 0.686 1.18 (0.85–1.64) 0.325 1.03 (0.74–1.44) 0.863

P-values < 0.001 are displayed as < 0.001. Model 1: Adjusted for age and gender. Model 2: Adjusted for Model 1 variables plus education, marital status, and residence. Model 3: Adjusted for Model 2 variables plus smoking, drinking, physical activity (METs), C-reactive protein (CRP), ADL disability, self-reported health, and chronic disease count at baseline

ADL, Activities of Daily Living; CI, Confidence Interval; HR, Hazard Ratio; MET, Metabolic Equivalent of Task