Table 3.
Hazard ratios for incident chronic diseases according to quartiles of the modified cardiometabolic index (MCMI)
| Outcome | MCMI Quartile | Model 1 h (95% CI) | P-value | Model 2 h (95% CI) | P-value | Model 3 h (95% CI) | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hypertension | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 1.17 (1.01–1.37) | 0.036 | 1.21 (1.04–1.40) | 0.015 | 1.22 (1.04–1.41) | 0.012 | |
| Q3 | 1.48 (1.28–1.72) | < 0.001 | 1.58 (1.36–1.84) | < 0.001 | 1.59 (1.37–1.85) | < 0.001 | |
| Q4 | 2.25 (1.95–2.60) | < 0.001 | 2.40 (2.07–2.78) | < 0.001 | 2.41 (2.08–2.80) | < 0.001 | |
| Diabetes | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 1.27 (0.95–1.69) | 0.104 | 1.25 (0.94–1.66) | 0.130 | 1.23 (0.92–1.64) | 0.154 | |
| Q3 | 2.08 (1.60–2.71) | < 0.001 | 2.05 (1.57–2.67) | < 0.001 | 1.96 (1.50–2.56) | < 0.001 | |
| Q4 | 4.45 (3.49–5.67) | < 0.001 | 4.32 (3.37–5.54) | < 0.001 | 4.06 (3.16–5.22) | < 0.001 | |
| Cancer | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 0.77 (0.49–1.22) | 0.261 | 0.73 (0.46–1.15) | 0.175 | 0.72 (0.45–1.14) | 0.159 | |
| Q3 | 0.86 (0.55–1.35) | 0.521 | 0.79 (0.50–1.24) | 0.298 | 0.75 (0.48–1.19) | 0.221 | |
| Q4 | 1.04 (0.68–1.59) | 0.864 | 0.88 (0.57–1.37) | 0.574 | 0.81 (0.52–1.27) | 0.362 | |
| Lung Disease | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 1.03 (0.85–1.24) | 0.795 | 1.06 (0.88–1.28) | 0.534 | 1.04 (0.86–1.26) | 0.667 | |
| Q3 | 0.97 (0.81–1.18) | 0.786 | 1.05 (0.86–1.27) | 0.649 | 0.97 (0.80–1.18) | 0.790 | |
| Q4 | 0.97 (0.80–1.17) | 0.725 | 1.05 (0.87–1.28) | 0.596 | 0.92 (0.76–1.13) | 0.435 | |
| Heart Disease | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 1.38 (1.15–1.66) | 0.001 | 1.32 (1.10–1.59) | 0.003 | 1.30 (1.08–1.57) | 0.006 | |
| Q3 | 1.37 (1.13–1.65) | 0.001 | 1.28 (1.06–1.55) | 0.010 | 1.22 (1.01–1.48) | 0.039 | |
| Q4 | 1.64 (1.37–1.97) | < 0.001 | 1.49 (1.23–1.79) | < 0.001 | 1.37 (1.13–1.66) | 0.001 | |
| Stroke | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 1.62 (1.21–2.15) | 0.001 | 1.66 (1.24–2.21) | 0.001 | 1.64 (1.23–2.19) | 0.001 | |
| Q3 | 1.83 (1.38–2.43) | < 0.001 | 1.94 (1.46–2.57) | < 0.001 | 1.86 (1.40–2.47) | < 0.001 | |
| Q4 | 2.57 (1.97–3.36) | < 0.001 | 2.73 (2.08–3.60) | < 0.001 | 2.51 (1.90–3.32) | < 0.001 | |
| Psychological Problem | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 1.38 (0.95–2.03) | 0.094 | 1.28 (0.88–1.88) | 0.199 | 1.27 (0.86–1.86) | 0.228 | |
| Q3 | 1.14 (0.77–1.70) | 0.517 | 1.01 (0.67–1.50) | 0.974 | 0.90 (0.60–1.35) | 0.605 | |
| Q4 | 1.07 (0.72–1.60) | 0.735 | 0.87 (0.58–1.32) | 0.518 | 0.76 (0.50–1.16) | 0.202 | |
| Arthritis | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 1.19 (1.03–1.38) | 0.017 | 1.17 (1.01–1.35) | 0.034 | 1.16 (1.01–1.35) | 0.042 | |
| Q3 | 1.09 (0.94–1.27) | 0.245 | 1.10 (0.94–1.27) | 0.226 | 1.08 (0.93–1.26) | 0.322 | |
| Q4 | 1.05 (0.90–1.22) | 0.516 | 1.03 (0.88–1.20) | 0.733 | 1.00 (0.85–1.17) | 0.997 | |
| Dyslipidemia | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 1.29 (1.07–1.57) | 0.008 | 1.29 (1.07–1.57) | 0.008 | 1.30 (1.07–1.58) | 0.008 | |
| Q3 | 1.88 (1.57–2.25) | < 0.001 | 1.84 (1.53–2.20) | < 0.001 | 1.77 (1.47–2.12) | < 0.001 | |
| Q4 | 2.99 (2.52–3.56) | < 0.001 | 2.94 (2.46–3.51) | < 0.001 | 2.84 (2.38–3.40) | < 0.001 | |
| Liver Disease | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 0.86 (0.65–1.13) | 0.271 | 0.88 (0.67–1.15) | 0.346 | 0.86 (0.66–1.13) | 0.286 | |
| Q3 | 1.06 (0.82–1.37) | 0.678 | 1.08 (0.83–1.41) | 0.547 | 1.01 (0.77–1.31) | 0.969 | |
| Q4 | 1.20 (0.93–1.54) | 0.163 | 1.25 (0.96–1.62) | 0.094 | 1.11 (0.85–1.44) | 0.439 | |
| Kidney Disease | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 0.87 (0.68–1.10) | 0.236 | 0.90 (0.71–1.15) | 0.406 | 0.87 (0.69–1.11) | 0.264 | |
| Q3 | 1.12 (0.90–1.40) | 0.321 | 1.19 (0.95–1.50) | 0.126 | 1.10 (0.88–1.39) | 0.394 | |
| Q4 | 1.11 (0.89–1.39) | 0.357 | 1.22 (0.97–1.53) | 0.091 | 1.06 (0.84–1.34) | 0.606 | |
| Digestive Disease | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 0.88 (0.75–1.04) | 0.143 | 0.86 (0.72–1.01) | 0.066 | 0.85 (0.72–1.00.72.00) | 0.053 | |
| Q3 | 0.95 (0.81–1.12) | 0.540 | 0.91 (0.77–1.08) | 0.287 | 0.88 (0.75–1.04) | 0.135 | |
| Q4 | 0.84 (0.72–1.00.72.00) | 0.046 | 0.79 (0.67–0.94) | 0.008 | 0.74 (0.62–0.88) | 0.001 | |
| Asthma | Q1 | Ref. | — | Ref. | — | Ref. | — |
| Q2 | 0.88 (0.63–1.23) | 0.456 | 0.91 (0.66–1.27) | 0.593 | 0.90 (0.64–1.26) | 0.531 | |
| Q3 | 0.90 (0.65–1.25) | 0.540 | 0.99 (0.71–1.38) | 0.949 | 0.92 (0.66–1.29) | 0.643 | |
| Q4 | 1.07 (0.78–1.46) | 0.686 | 1.18 (0.85–1.64) | 0.325 | 1.03 (0.74–1.44) | 0.863 |
P-values < 0.001 are displayed as < 0.001. Model 1: Adjusted for age and gender. Model 2: Adjusted for Model 1 variables plus education, marital status, and residence. Model 3: Adjusted for Model 2 variables plus smoking, drinking, physical activity (METs), C-reactive protein (CRP), ADL disability, self-reported health, and chronic disease count at baseline
ADL, Activities of Daily Living; CI, Confidence Interval; HR, Hazard Ratio; MET, Metabolic Equivalent of Task