Table 3.
Performance comparison of the proposed ST-GNN with baseline models for 1-week and 4-week dengue incidence forecasts,.
| Model (baseline) | 1-week RMSE | 1-week MAE | 1-week MAPE (%) | 4-week RMSE | 4-week MAE | 4-week MAPE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMA34 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 16.2 | 48.5 |
| SARIMA35 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 30.1 | 19.0 | 15.4 | 45.8 |
| Prophet36 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 31.0 | 19.5 | 15.8 | 46.7 |
| Random forest (RF)37 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 24.0 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 36.2 |
| XGBoost38 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 22.1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 34.5 |
| LSTM (seq2seq)39 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 20.4 | 14.8 | 12.0 | 32.8 |
| GRU40 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 19.2 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 31.9 |
| ConvLSTM41 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 17.1 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 29.8 |
| DCRNN (diffusive GNN-RNN)42 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 27.2 |
| ST-GCN43 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 25.6 |
| Proposed ST-GNN | 6.1 | 4.9 | 12.0 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 22.4 |