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. 2026 Mar 30;16:10584. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-43073-y

Table 4.

Probabilistic evaluation metrics(uncertainty evaluation).

Model CRPS (1-week) ↓ PICP (1-week) ↑ MPIW (1-week) ↓ CRPS (4-week) ↓ PICP (4-week) ↑ MPIW (4-week) ↓
ARIMA 7.42 0.71 38.5 10.86 0.65 51.3
SARIMA 7.10 0.73 36.8 10.32 0.67 48.6
Prophet 7.25 0.72 37.4 10.55 0.66 49.8
RF 5.98 0.80 31.2 8.92 0.74 42.7
XGBoost 5.72 0.82 29.8 8.51 0.76 41.0
LSTM 5.45 0.84 28.6 8.12 0.78 39.4
GRU 5.31 0.85 27.9 7.98 0.79 38.8
ConvLSTM 4.98 0.88 26.1 7.45 0.82 36.5
DCRNN 4.56 0.91 24.4 6.92 0.86 34.2
ST-GCN 4.32 0.92 23.5 6.58 0.88 33.0
Proposed ST-GNN 3.85 0.95 21.2 5.91 0.93 30.4