TABLE 1.

Parameters of the classic and extended Kok model determined for the data of Forbush et al. (1971) shown in Fig. 1

Model	Classic (Eqs. 8 and 9)	Extended (Eqs. 7 and 9)
Flashes used	1–24	1–24
Miss, α	0.084 ± 0.003	0.072 ± 0.004
Double-hit, β	0.028 ± 0.002	0.018 ± 0.004
Inactivation, ɛ	—	−0.001 ± 0.001
Backward-transition, δ	—	0.013 ± 0.004
Initial condition for S0	0.25 ± 0.02	0.26 ± 0.01
Initial condition for S1	0.73 ± 0.02	0.72 ± 0.02
Initial condition for S2	0	0.01 ± 0.01
Initial condition for S3	∼0.02*	∼0.01*
Error (reduced χ-square)	0.00026	0.00015

^*Calculated as (1 − ɛ)ⁿ −s₀ − s₁−s₂.