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. 2026 Feb 20;8(8):201–208. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.035

Table 3. Risk assessment indicators of importation likelihood, consequences, and corresponding scores.

Assessment indicators Factors Classification Risk score
Abbreviation: CNY=Chinese Yuan; R0=basic reproductive number.
* data represent total monthly seats capacity for inbound routes to China;
† monthly data; cumulative cases and cumulative case fatality rate (%) of Nipah virus infection were from the year of 1999–2026.
Importation likelihood Cumulative cases
≤49 2
50–499 4
500–999 6
1,000–4,999 8
≥5,000 10
Monthly inbound aviation capacity (seats)*† ≤49 2
50–299 4
300–799 6
800–1,499 8
≥1,500 10
Monthly importation value of animals and animal products (Million CNY)† ≤49 2
50–499 4
500–1,999 6
2,000–4,999 8
≥5,000 10
Terrestrial proximity to China Non-adjacent and ocean-isolated 2
Non-bordering but proximal 4
Bordering with natural barriers 6
Bordering with land ports of entry 8
Bordering with extensive, porous boundaries 10
The time lag between the latest outbreak of Nipah virus infection and 2026 by country (years)
≤1 10
2–3 8
4–5 6
6–9 4
≥10 2
Importation consequences R0 ≤0.5 2
0.6–0.9 4
1–1.4 6
1.5–2.4 8
≥2.5 10
Cumulative case fatality rate (%) ≤9 2
10–39 4
40–59 6
60–79 8
≥80 10