Table 4.
Predictive performance of the metabolite ratio-based model.
| Time Point | Ratio | AUC [95% CI] |
Accuracy [95% CI] |
F1 Score [95% CI] |
Association with High Stress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest | N-acetyl-β-alanine/ADMA |
0.845 [0.669 – 0.971] |
0.815 [0.640 – 0.938] |
0.833 [0.667 – 0.952] |
↓ |
| N-acetyl-β-alanine/7-Methylguanine |
0.829 [0.678 – 0.955] |
0.777 [0.576 – 0.906] |
0.785 [0.558 – 0.917] |
↓ | |
| Ile/7-Methylguanine |
0.793 [0.648 – 0.936] |
0.768 [0.577 – 0.906] |
0.770 [0.586 – 0.929] |
↓ | |
| Glycerate/6-Phosphogluconate |
0.787 [0.607 – 0.907] |
0.744 [0.546 – 0.891] |
0.749 [0.544 – 0.912] |
↓ | |
| Val/ADMA |
0.783 [0.628 – 0.946] |
0.759 [0.563 – 0.923] |
0.743 [0.527 – 0.925] |
↓ | |
| 7-Methylguanine/Val |
0.771 [0.623 – 0.935] |
0.741 [0.563 – 0.938] |
0.757 [0.519 – 0.951] |
↑ | |
| His/Glu |
0.760 [0.614 – 0.896] |
0.729 [0.531 – 0.875] |
0.707 [0.531 – 0.889] |
↑ | |
| Post-UK | Progesterone/25-OHD |
0.835 [0.630 – 0.968] |
0.825 [0.625 – 0.954] |
0.817 [0.604 – 0.956] |
↓ |
| Thr/25-OHD |
0.833 [0.639 – 0.986] |
0.801 [0.594 – 0.954] |
0.796 [0.586 – 0.959] |
↓ | |
| 25-OHD/Inosine |
0.833 [0.628 – 0.982] |
0.778 [0.546 – 0.954] |
0.777 [0.533 – 0.960] |
↑ | |
| 25-OHD/Adenine |
0.827 [0.624 – 0.975] |
0.781 [0.531 – 0.938] |
0.775 [0.522 – 0.946] |
↑ | |
| Hypoxanthine/25-OHD |
0.827 [0.648 – 0.962] |
0.826 [0.688 – 0.969] |
0.823 [0.664 – 0.966] |
↓ | |
| Gln/25-OHD |
0.826 [0.647 – 0.949] |
0.776 [0.577 – 0.906] |
0.767 [0.505 – 0.917] |
↓ | |
| 25-OHD/Adenosine |
0.815 [0.622 – 0.950] |
0.763 [0.531 – 0.906] |
0.754 [0.530 – 0.907] |
↑ | |
| 1,3-Diaminopropane/25-OHD |
0.807 [0.646 – 0.958] |
0.746 [0.513 – 0.923] |
0.757 [0.516 – 0.932] |
↓ | |
| 25-OHD / β-Ala |
0.802 [0.616 – 0.963] |
0.756 [0.563 – 0.923] |
0.759 [0.579 – 0.923] |
↑ | |
| 11-Deoxycorticosterone/25-OHD |
0.801 [0.605 – 0.957] |
0.755 [0.546 – 0.891] |
0.770 [0.563 – 0.911] |
↓ | |
| Tetrahydrocortisol/Homovanillate |
0.801 [0.634 – 0.939] |
0.738 [0.546 – 0.875] |
0.758 [0.584 – 0.898] |
↓ | |
| Glu/25-OHD |
0.800 [0.631 – 0.935] |
0.780 [0.563 – 0.923] |
0.769 [0.509 – 0.929] |
↓ | |
| Leu/25-OHD |
0.794 [0.609 – 0.945] |
0.744 [0.515 – 0.891] |
0.752 [0.593 – 0.916] |
↓ | |
| Tetrahydrocortisol/Lithocholic acid |
0.785 [0.651 – 0.940] |
0.746 [0.594 – 0.906] |
0.754 [0.503 – 0.925] |
↓ | |
| Recover | Ser/His |
0.806 [0.646 – 0.962] |
0.801 [0.640 – 0.938] |
0.792 [0.613 – 0.949] |
↓ |
| Glu/His |
0.805 [0.652 – 0.945] |
0.821 [0.640 – 0.938] |
0.829 [0.636 – 0.943] |
↓ | |
| Tyr/Val |
0.794 [0.627 – 0.925] |
0.748 [0.531 – 0.906] |
0.756 [0.517 – 0.918] |
↑ | |
| His/Estrone |
0.786 [0.628 – 0.912] |
0.756 [0.563 – 0.906] |
0.749 [0.542 – 0.921] |
↑ | |
| His/N-acetylglucosamine 6-phosphate |
0.779 [0.625 – 0.920] |
0.752 [0.563 – 0.891] |
0.723 [0.533 – 0.900] |
↑ | |
| Tyr/Estrone |
0.777 [0.611 – 0.919] |
0.777 [0.594 – 0.923] |
0.777 [0.547 – 0.922] |
↑ | |
| Tyr/Ser |
0.774 [0.603 – 0.907] |
0.774 [0.577 – 0.906] |
0.747 [0.535 – 0.907] |
↑ | |
| Trp/AICAR |
0.769 [0.611 – 0.912] |
0.750 [0.594 – 0.906] |
0.751 [0.540 – 0.916] |
↓ | |
| Glycerate/N-acetylglucosamine 6-phosphate |
0.762 [0.613 – 0.913] |
0.792 [0.671 – 0.906] |
0.775 [0.618 – 0.918] |
↑ | |
| Post-WM | 4-Methyl-2-oxopentanoate/N6,N6,N6-trimethyllysine |
0.867 [0.735 – 0.981] |
0.807 [0.656 – 0.938] |
0.786 [0.582 – 0.939] |
↑ |
| Ile/N-ε-acetyllysine |
0.849 [0.727 – 0.952] |
0.788 [0.577 – 0.938] |
0.785 [0.538 – 0.947] |
↓ | |
| Val/N-ε-acetyllysine |
0.834 [0.685 – 0.968] |
0.821 [0.688 – 0.938] |
0.822 [0.677 – 0.956] |
↓ | |
| 4-Methyl-2-oxopentanoate/Val |
0.834 [0.686 – 0.950] |
0.764 [0.531 – 0.906] |
0.762 [0.508 – 0.932] |
↑ | |
| Agmatine/ N6,N6,N6-trimethyllysine |
0.831 [0.705 – 0.941] |
0.751 [0.563 – 0.906] |
0.747 [0.539 – 0.909] |
↑ | |
| His/ N6,N6,N6-trimethyllysine |
0.828 [0.700 – 0.946] |
0.771 [0.515 – 0.906] |
0.758 [0.524 – 0.925] |
↑ | |
| Leu/N-ε-acetyllysine |
0.820 [0.686 – 0.961] |
0.815 [0.625 – 0.938] |
0.818 [0.583 – 0.951] |
↓ | |
| Cortisol/N-acetylglucosamine 1-phosphate |
0.807 [0.655 – 0.918] |
0.767 [0.546 – 0.906] |
0.762 [0.516 – 0.909] |
↓ | |
| 2AB/N-ε-acetyllysine |
0.805 [0.656 – 0.959] |
0.832 [0.688 – 0.938] |
0.829 [0.664 – 0.949] |
↓ | |
| All | 4-Methyl-2-oxopentanoate/Choline |
0.724 [0.563 – 0.850] |
0.684 [0.523 – 0.789] |
0.703 [0.501 – 0.821] |
↑ |
| Choline/Azelate |
0.653 [0.514 – 0.773] |
0.671 [0.550 – 0.789] |
0.720 [0.573 – 0.834] |
↓ |
The table shows the top-performing models, which were selected if the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval for their performance metrics exceeded the following thresholds: AUC > 0.60, Accuracy > 0.50, and F1 Score > 0.50 (for Post-WM: AUC > 0.65; for All time points: AUC > 0.50).
Association with High Stress: ↑ indicates that a higher model output is associated with the high-stress group; ↓ indicates that a higher model output is associated with the control group.
UK, Uchida–Kraepelin test; WM, working memory test; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval.
25-OHD, 25-hydroxyvitamin D; ADMA, asymmetric dimethylarginine; Glu, glutamic acid; His, histidine; Ile, isoleucine; Leu, leucine; Ser, serine; Thr, threonine; Trp, tryptophan; Tyr, tyrosine; Val, valine.