Table 2. Interrupted time-series+difference-in-differences mixed Poisson model (IRR, 95% CI).

Term	IRR	95% CI	P value
Post (level change, February 2023)	1.35	1.15 to 1.59	0.0003
Post-trend (time_after, per month)	0.93	0.89 to 0.98	0.002
Earthquake area – colchicine_available versus outside (baseline)	1.04	0.73 to 1.50	0.820
Earthquake area – colchicine_unavailable versus outside (baseline)	1.23	0.83 to 1.81	0.300
Post×colchicine_available (extra level change)	1.60	1.07 to 2.39	0.022
Post×colchicine_unavailable (extra level change)	2.64	1.97 to 3.53	<0.001
Post-trend×colchicine_available (extra monthly change)	0.93	0.84 to 1.03	0.150
Post-trend×colchicine_unavailable (extra monthly change)	0.89	0.83 to 0.96	0.002
Age ≥12 years (vs <12 years)	1.09	0.94 to 1.26	0.270
Age at diagnosis (per year)	0.97	0.90 to 1.04	0.410
Sex (female vs male)	1.17	1.04 to 1.33	0.012
Comorbidity_no_drug (vs none)	1.33	1.05 to 1.68	0.020
Comorbidity_with_drug use (vs none)	1.24	0.97 to 1.58	0.086
Mutation class 2 (vs 1)	1.18	1.02 to 1.37	0.030
Mutation class 3 (vs 1)	1.00	0.73 to 1.39	0.980
Mutation class 4 (vs 1)	0.78	0.58 to 1.04	0.092
Mutation class 5 (vs 1)	1.00	0.81 to 1.23	1.00

Model fit and random effects: AIC=15 946; random-intercept SD (centre)=0.47, SD (ID)=0.82; random-slope (time_after) SD=0.106, corr=−0.74. Dispersion test p=0.17 (no over-dispersion); zero-inflation p=0.23.

Statistically significant IRR values are shown in bold (p < 0.05).

IRR, incidence rate ratio.