Table 2.
tAUC over 10 years for predicting composite outcomes in different cohorts using various predictive models
| Group | Ancestry | APOL1 genotype | eGFR ml min−1 1.73 m−2 | Cohort | Number | Events % | KFRE | CRIC | APRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training | African | High-risk | ≥60 | PMBB | 680 | 17.8 | 66.6 (1.5) | 79.7 (1.9) | 86.7 (1.4) |
| Test | African | High-risk | ≥60 | PMBB | 171 | 18.7 | 66.2 (4.3) | 79.0 (4.0) | 86.5 (3.9) |
| <60 | PMBB | 262 | 55.3 | 82.4 (2.1) | 83.2 (1.7) | 84.2 (1.9) | |||
| ≥60 | ARIC | 296 | 10.5 | - | 52.0 (1.6) | 77.5 (1.1)* | |||
| UKBB | 195 | 5.4 | 67.3 (6.8) | 80.0 (5.5) | 81.6 (5.9) | ||||
| Any | ARIC | 314 | 13.7 | - | 55.8 (1.9) | 82.2 (1.2) | |||
| UKBB | 204 | 6.3 | 75.5 (7.4) | 80.4 (5.1) | 84.7 (5.3) | ||||
| Low-risk | ≥60 | ARIC | 1,932 | 13.6 | - | 52.3 (0.7) | 74.2 (0.8) | ||
| PMBB | 874 | 15.4 | 52.8 (3.7) | 72.6 (3.8) | 80.2 (4.1) | ||||
| UKBB | 942 | 6.2 | 55.8 (4.4) | 75.6 (5.1) | 74.2 (5.0) | ||||
| Any | ARIC | 2,021 | 15.9 | - | 53.7 (0.5) | 78.5 (1.2) | |||
| PMBB | 912 | 15.1 | 60.1 (1.5) | 69.3 (1.3) | 73.1 (2.1) | ||||
| UKBB | 967 | 6.8 | 63.8 (4.5) | 78.1 (4.6) | 74.8 (3.9) | ||||
| European | Low-risk | ≥60 | ARIC | 8,437 | 9.9 | - | 61.4 (0.3) | 70.2 (0.5) | |
| PMBB | 658 | 13.2 | 54.6 (5.0) | 64.0 (3.9) | 63.3 (7.0) | ||||
| UKBB | 45,623 | 8.5 | 58.2 (4.5) | 68.0 (3.3) | 71.2 (3.3) | ||||
| Any | ARIC | 8,602 | 10.5 | - | 63.6 (0.6) | 71.9 (0.9) | |||
| PMBB | 698 | 13.5 | 58.9 (2.3) | 66.7 (2.1) | 66.9 (2.0) | ||||
| UKBB | 46,863 | 9.4 | 62.5 (4.1) | 70.8 (3.2) | 73.5 (3.2) |
This table presents the tAUC values (standard deviation) for different predictive models across various populations and cohorts over a 10-year period. The table compares the performance of KFRE and APRS in predicting composite outcomes. *UACR is not available for ARCI at visit 2.