Table 2. Risk stratification trade-off between the population classified as high risk and unnatural deaths captured.
| Model | Prediction time point | Optimism-corrected capture of unnatural deaths (%) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10% | Top 20% | Top 30% | Top 40% | Top 50% | Top 60% | Top 70% | ||
| Full presentation model | 1 year | 27.2 | 53.1 | 79.4 | 84.2 | 92.0 | 94.6 | 94.9 |
| 2 years | 27.9 | 47.3 | 74.8 | 85.9 | 91.8 | 95.6 | 95.9 | |
| 3 years | 28.9 | 46.3 | 69.3 | 78.5 | 83.8 | 89.0 | 90.8 | |
| Full discharge model | 1 year | 31.0 | 62.9 | 81.4 | 86.5 | 92.0 | 92.3 | 92.7 |
| 2 years | 28.5 | 57.2 | 75.9 | 87.6 | 91.9 | 92.3 | 94.4 | |
| 3 years | 30.1 | 55.5 | 69.7 | 82.3 | 86.7 | 88.1 | 92.3 | |
| Simplified presentation model | 1 year | 32.1 | 52.3 | 76.3 | 81.9 | 86.8 | 92.0 | 97.1 |
| 2 years | 27.7 | 49.6 | 72.8 | 85.8 | 89.8 | 93.8 | 97.6 | |
| 3 years | 29.2 | 48.2 | 68.1 | 78.9 | 81.7 | 88.3 | 91.1 | |
| Simplified discharge model | 1 year | 48.1 | 56.6 | 81.1 | 84.8 | 85.1 | 87.4 | 97.2 |
| 2 years | 42.1 | 51.0 | 74.7 | 86.1 | 88.7 | 90.7 | 97.7 | |
| 3 years | 40.8 | 50.3 | 70.6 | 80.4 | 83.6 | 86.3 | 92.7 | |
Values show the proportion of all unnatural deaths occurring within 1, 2 and 3 years that were captured within increasingly larger high-risk groups defined by the top 10% to 70% of the cohort with the highest predicted 2-year risk. Results are shown for the full presentation, full discharge, transportable presentation, and transportable discharge models. Optimism-corrected estimates were obtained from bootstrap internal validation of the full model development pipeline.