Table 5.
Scenario analysis—health impact of different resource allocation strategies.
| Scenario | Description | UHC SCI Change (Points) | Under-5 Deaths Averted (Annual) | Maternal Deaths Averted (Annual) | Catastrophic Expenditure Reduction (% Points) | DALYs Averted (Million, Annual) | ICER (USD per DALY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Current allocation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Scenario A | +10% total health expenditure, current mix | +4.2 | 185,000 | 28,000 | −1.8 | 8.4 | 3,250 |
| Scenario B | Reallocate 15% to primary care & digital health | +9.7 | 425,000 | 64,000 | −4.2 | 19.2 | 1,820 |
| Scenario C | Reallocate 20% based on optimization results | +12.4 | 550,000 | 83,000 | −5.1 | 24.8 | 1,540 |
| Scenario D | +20% expenditure with optimal allocation | +18.2 | 810,000 | 122,000 | −7.6 | 36.4 | 2,150 |
| Scenario E | Focus on poorest 40% only | +6.8 | 310,000 | 47,000 | −6.3 | 14.1 | 1,280 |
| Scenario F | Focus on pandemic preparedness | +3.1 | 135,000 | 20,000 | −0.9 | 6.1 | 4,850 |
Source: Author’s mathematical modeling incorporating econometric estimates and disease burden data from IHME. All scenarios compared to baseline (current allocation and expenditure). DALYs, disability-adjusted life years. ICER calculated as additional cost divided by DALYs averted relative to baseline.