Table 2:

Risk prediction assessment of the BCDDP data. The reported values are absolute error. “Interval”: absolute risk intervals defined in (4); “Risk”: averaged risk within each interval; “Cases”: predicted number of cases. Followed by the absolute error in the parentheses. “True” represents risks and number of cases from the well calibrated external model; “Proposed” stands for the proposed method; “Ad Hoc” stands for the Ad Hoc method; “Chatterjee’s” stands for the method using constraints from Chatterjee et al. (2016).

Intervals	Risk				Cases
	True	Proposed	Ad Hoc	Chatterjee’s	True	Proposed	Ad Hoc	Chatterjee’s
$\phi (S=1,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [0.32\%,8.18\%)$	0.008	0.000	0.000	0.992	270	12	16	29491
$\phi (S=2,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [0.85\%,11.22\%)$	0.018	0.000	0.000	0.012	1439	36	113	445
$\phi (S=1,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [1.58\%,1.93\%)$	0.018	0.001	0.001	0.982	15	2	1	898
$\phi (S=1,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [1.93\%,2.24\%)$	0.020	0.002	0.002	0.980	5	0	2	323
$\phi (S=1,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [2.24\%,3.15\%)$	0.026	0.002	0.002	0.974	17	3	0	641
$\phi (S=1,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [3.15\%,8.18\%)$	0.037	0.010	0.010	0.963	7	1	2	255
$\phi (S=2,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [1.59\%,2.34\%)$	0.018	0.000	0.000	0.009	515	40	26	239
$\phi (S=2,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [2.34\%,2.95\%)$	0.027	0.001	0.001	0.023	260	3	19	40
$\phi (S=2,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [2.95\%,4.46\%)$	0.033	0.003	0.003	0.032	180	3	27	5
$\phi (S=2,\mathbf{\text{x}})\in [4.46\%,11.22\%)$	0.057	0.003	0.003	0.057	98	8	16	0