Fig. 1.

Integrated modeling framework for the supply, demand, and end-of-life management of retired electric-vehicle batteries. The supply module uses a dynamic fleet-stock model to project provincial retired-battery supply from 2020 to 2050. The demand module estimates demand for retired batteries in power-storage applications based on projected solar and wind power generation, as well as demand for recycled batteries associated with new-car battery production. The disposal-system module distinguishes collected from uncollected batteries, matches provincial supply with demand, optimizes interprovincial transport, and allocates collected batteries among metallurgical recycling, power storage application, and direct recycling. The analytical framework evaluates alternative collection rates and end-of-life pathway choices, quantifies spatial mismatch using the Gini coefficient, optimizes transport, and assesses life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions and system costs. A Monte Carlo approach is used to identify the optimal strategy. Solid arrows indicate flows of collected batteries through the formal management system; dashed arrows indicate uncollected batteries or waste flows.