Fig. 3.

Temporal and spatial mismatches between retired-battery supply and demand for high-value utilization. a, Battery capacity gaps associated with power storage applications. The left panel shows the national supply–demand gap from 2020 to 2050 across collection levels and end-of-life pathways; the right panels show provincial capacity gaps under the High-SU scenario in 2035 and 2050. b, Share of recycled batteries in demand and the corresponding battery-capacity gaps for direct recycling. The left panel shows the national share from 2020 to 2050, and the right panels show provincial capacity gaps under the High-DR scenario in 2035 and 2050. In the time-series panels, dotted, dashed, and solid lines represent low, middle, and high collection rates, respectively; colors denote the MR, DR, SU, and BA pathways, and the grey line denotes BAU. In the provincial panels, positive and negative values indicate battery surpluses and deficits, respectively. Insets show Lorenz curves, with the dashed diagonal indicating perfect spatial equality; G denotes the corresponding Gini coefficient. MR, metallurgical recycling; DR, direct recycling; SU, power-storage applications; BA, balanced allocation; BAU, business as usual.