Fig. 5.

Optimal end-of-life management strategy and its cumulative cost and GHG outcomes from 2020 to 2050. a, Cumulative GHG-emission and cost changes relative to BAU for strategies sampled using Monte Carlo simulation. Grey points represent simulated strategies; symbol shapes denote low, middle, and high collection levels, and symbol colors denote the MR, DR, SU, and BA end-of-life pathways. The red rectangle marks the identified optimal strategy (minimizing cost changes). b–c, Contributions of individual processes to cumulative GHG-emission changes (b) and cost changes (c) under the predefined scenarios and optimal strategy. Bar colors identify the processes shown in the key, and open triangles indicate net changes. Negative values denote avoided GHG emissions in panel b and cost savings in panel c, relative to BAU. MR, metallurgical recycling; DR, direct recycling; SU, power-storage applications; BA, balanced allocation; BAU, business as usual; EOL, end of life; GHG, greenhouse gas; CNY, Chinese yuan; CO₂eq, carbon dioxide equivalent.