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. 2026 Jun 23;25:273. doi: 10.1186/s12933-026-03230-z

Table 6.

Cox regression analysis of IR trajectory markers and cardiovascular disease risk based on ELSA data

Variables Model1 Model2 Model3
HR(95%CI) P HR(95%CI) P HR(95%CI) P
TyG_group
 Trajectory 3 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 2 1.19(0.91, 1.56) 0.194 1.08(0.83, 1.42) 0.557 1.07(0.82, 1.41) 0.601
 Trajectory 1 1.56(1.03, 2.37) 0.035 1.46(0.96, 2.22) 0.08 1.37(0.90, 2.09) 0.146
 P for trend 1.3(1.02, 1.84) 0.035 1.31(0.97, 1.76) 0.08 1.25(0.93, 1.68) 0.15
TyG-WC_group
 Trajectory 2 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 3 1.39(1.04, 1.86) 0.024 1.37(1.02, 1.85) 0.035 1.33(0.99, 1.79) 0.059
 Trajectory 1 1.73(1.27, 2.34) < 0.001 1.79(1.30, 2.48) < 0.001 1.67(1.21, 2.32) 0.002
 P for trend 1.47(1.19, 1.82) < 0.001 1.51(1.20, 1.90) < 0.001 1.44(1.14, 1.81) 0.002
TyG-WWI_group
 Trajectory 3 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 2 1.3(0.88, 1.91) 0.183 1.12(0.76, 1.66) 0.565 1.11(0.75, 1.65) 0.602
 Trajectory 1 1.88(1.28, 2.76) 0.001 1.36(0.91, 2.04) 0.129 1.31(0.87, 1.96) 0.191
 P for trend 1.56(1.19, 2.05) 0.001 1.25(0.94, 1.65) 0.13 1.21(0.91, 1.61) 0.2
TyG-BMI_group
 Trajectory 2 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 1 1.29(0.99, 1.68) 0.056 1.31(1.00, 1.70) 0.048 1.29(0.99, 1.69) 0.062
 Trajectory 3 1.44(1.08, 1.91) 0.012 1.49(1.12, 2.00) 0.007 1.43(1.07, 1.92) 0.017
 P for trend 1.29(1.06, 1.58) 0.012 1.33(1.08, 1.63) 0.007 1.29(1.05, 1.59) 0.017
TyG-ABSI_group
 Trajectory 3 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 2 1.26(0.90, 1.78) 0.179 1.12(0.78, 1.58) 0.543 1.09(0.77, 1.55) 0.623
 Trajectory 1 1.61(1.14, 2.28) 0.007 1.27(0.87, 1.85) 0.218 1.22(0.84, 1.78) 0.299
 P for trend 1.14(1.10, 1.79) 0.007 1.18(0.91, 1.55) 0.2 1.15(0.88, 1.51) 0.3
TyG-BRI_group
 Trajectory 2 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 1 1.26(0.96, 1.66) 0.099 1.09(0.82, 1.44) 0.542 1.06(0.80, 1.40) 0.684
 Trajectory 3 1.67(1.25, 2.22) < 0.001 1.39(1.04, 1.87) 0.028 1.3(0.97, 1.76) 0.082
 P for trend 1.44(1.17, 1.76) < 0.001 1.26(1.03, 1.56) 0.028 1.21(0.98, 1.49) 0.082
TyG-WHtR_group
 Trajectory 2 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 1 1.26(0.90, 1.78) 0.179 1.12(0.78, 1.58) 0.543 1.09(0.77, 1.55) 0.623
 Trajectory 3 1.61(1.14, 2.28) 0.007 1.27(0.87, 1.85) 0.218 1.22(0.84, 1.78) 0.299
 P for trend 1.4(1.10, 1.79) 0.007 1.18(0.91, 1.55) 0.2 1.15(0.88, 1.51) 0.3
METS-IR_group
 Trajectory 3 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 2 1.24(0.95, 1.62) 0.114 1.21(0.92, 1.58) 0.175 1.19(0.91, 1.56) 0.205
 Trajectory 1 1.59(1.20, 2.10) 0.001 1.6(1.20, 2.14) 0.001 1.54(1.15, 2.06) 0.003
 P for trend 1.39(1.14, 1.69) 0.001 1.4(1.14, 1.71) 0.001 1.36(1.11, 1.67) 0.003
AIP_group
 Trajectory 3 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 2 1.39(1.04, 1.85) 0.026 1.28(0.96, 1.71) 0.099 1.28(0.95, 1.71) 0.1
 Trajectory 1 1.67(1.13, 2.49) 0.011 1.6(1.07, 2.40) 0.021 1.56(1.04, 2.33) 0.031
 P for trend 1.44(1.09, 1.90) 0.011 1.4(1.05, 1.86) 0.021 1.37(1.03, 1.82) 0.031
CTI_group
 Trajectory 3 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 2 1.8(1.26, 2.56) 0.001 1.53(1.07, 2.18) 0.021 1.47(1.03, 2.11) 0.034
 Trajectory 1 2.45(1.63, 3.69) < 0.001 2(1.31, 3.04) 0.001 1.9(1.25, 2.89) 0.003
 P for trend 1.89(1.41, 2.52) < 0.001 1.63(1.21, 2.20) 0.001 1.57(1.17, 2.12) 0.003
CHG_group
 Trajectory 3 Reference Reference Reference
 Trajectory 2 1(0.74, 1.35) 0.988 0.97(0.71, 1.31) 0.818 0.98(0.73, 1.33) 0.912
 Trajectory 1 1.08(0.79, 1.47) 0.647 1.03(0.75, 1.42) 0.855 1.06(0.77, 1.46) 0.721
 P for trend 1.05(0.84, 1.31) 0.6 1.02(0.82, 1.28) 0.9 1.04(0.83, 1.31) 0.7