Table 3.
Alternative Risk Adjustment Measures in Prospective Cost Models
| Adjusted R2 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cost | Inpatient Cost | Outpatient Cost | |
| Age and gender alone (%) | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| Prior year cost | 4.79 | 1.95 | 41.93 |
| Self-report measures | |||
| PCS+MCS (SF-36 summaries) | 1.79 | 1.04 | 3.96 |
| SIC | 1.36 | 0.94 | 1.86 |
| Administrative data-based measures | |||
| Charlson (%) | 3.56 | 2.40 | 4.63 |
| ACG | 5.14 | 2.22 | 18.00 |
| DCG-HCC | 7.16 | 3.43 | 20.63 |
| CDPS | 3.78 | 1.59 | 14.40 |
| RxRisk | 4.73 | 2.31 | 13.51 |
| Combined models | |||
| DCG, Prior cost | 7.74 | 3.64 | 43.20 |
| DCG, RxRisk | 7.74 | 3.69 | 22.38 |
| DCG, RxRisk, prior cost | 8.23 | 3.88 | 43.82 |
| DCG, RxRisk, prior cost, SF | 8.33 | 3.95 | 43.90 |
| Sample size | 14,449 | ||
Note: All self-report and diagnosis-based measures include age and gender.
PCS, Physical Component Scores; MCS, Mental Component Score; SIC, Seattle Index of Comorbidity; HCC, Hierarchical Cost Categories; ACG, Adjusted Clinical Group; DCG, Diagnostic Cost Group; CDPS, Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System.