Table 2.
Temporal trend of Zika incidence rates by regions and federative units. Brazil, 2016–2023
| Spatial unit | Rate1 | AAPC (95% CI) p-value | Trend | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2023 | |||||
| Observed (crude) | Modeled(adjusted) | Observed (crude) | Modeled(adjusted) | |||
| North | 58.32 | 47.62 | 3.34 | 2.95 | −32.79%* (−40.87 to −23.61; p < 0.001) | ⬇ |
| RO | 33.18 | 8.35 | 2.53 | 1.71 | −20.29% (−37.32 to 1.37; p = 0.060) | ⬌ |
| AC | 10.66 | 4.09 | 12.17 | 4.09 | −0.0038% (−24.46 to 32.38; p = 0.999) | ⬌ |
| AM | 107.18 | 73.26 | 5.61 | 6.60 | −29.10% (−48.36 to −2.65; p = 0.034) | ⬇ |
| RR | 31.75 | 61.32 | 8.95 | 2.49 | −36.74% (−57.77 to −5.23; p = 0.026) | ⬇ |
| PA | 36.75 | 6.60 | 0.18 | 0.18 | −40.22% (−54.64 to −21.22; p = 0.004) | ⬇ |
| AP | 49.47 | 2.94 | 2.18 | 1.29 | −11.09% (−46.17 to 46.85; p = 0.587) | ⬌ |
| TO | 118.25 | 73.79 | 8.60 | 12.10 | −22.76% (−51.71 to 23.55; p = 0.281) | ⬌ |
| Northeast | 64.58 | 34.36 | 3.18 | 5.78 | −22.49% (−47.39 to 14.22; p = 0.198) | ⬌ |
| MA | 58.49 | 54.69 | 1.56 | 1.00 | −43.58% (−67.58 to −1.83; p = 0.043) | ⬇ |
| PI | 1.94 | 1.38 | 0.76 | 0.70 | −9.34% (−20.56 to 3.46; p = 0.119) | ⬌ |
| CE | 26.11 | 10.02 | 0.10 | 0.14 | −45.45% (−68.10 to −6.72; p = 0.033) | ⬇ |
| RN | 6.14 | 1.10 | 5.69 | 15.55 | 46.06% (19.52 to 78.51; p = 0.004) | ⬆ |
| PB | 18.11 | 5.47 | 2.49 | 8.86 | 7.13% (−18.46 to 40.74; p = 0.560) | ⬌ |
| PE | 1.91 | 0.67 | 0.03 | 0.20 | −16.06% (−41.92 to 21.31; p = 0.289) | ⬌ |
| AL | 119.40 | 15.32 | 1.92 | 4.48 | −16.10% (−39.10 to 15.59; p = 0.229) | ⬌ |
| SE | 1.61 | 0.66 | 9.91 | 11.04 | 49.68% (−11.24 to 152.42; p = 0.108) | ⬌ |
| BA | 168.20 | 89.60 | 7.27 | 7.83 | −29.41% (−39.71 to −17.35; p < 0.001) | ⬇ |
| Central-West | 168.70 | 111.41 | 4.09 | 2.24 | −42.76% (−61.67 to −14.52; p = 0.006) | ⬇ |
| MS | 65.09 | 8.61 | 2.94 | 0.61 | −31.44% (−47.32 to −10.77; p = 0.013) | ⬇ |
| MT | 489.96 | 419.69 | 12.74 | 6.20 | −45.23 (−67.33 to −8.17; p = 0.022) | ⬇ |
| GO | 119.50 | 85.81 | 1.69 | 1.80 | −42.42% (−56.43 to −23.92; p < 0.001) | ⬇ |
| DF | 6.43 | 5.03 | 0.00*** | 0.01 | −57.98% (−72.49 to −35.81; p = 0.002) | ⬇ |
| Southeast | 79.02 | 22.56 | 0.07 | 0.03 | −61.58% (−71.22 to −48.97; p < 0.001) | ⬇ |
| MG | 46.03 | 8.52 | 0.26 | 0.08 | −49.02% (−67.29 to −20.53; p = 0.010) | ⬇ |
| ES | 59.60 | 158.36 | < 0.00** | < 0.00 | −83.27% (−92.62 to −62.08; p = 0.002) | ⬇ |
| RJ | 305.91 | 120.11 | 0.01 | 0.02 | −70.97% (−76.47 to −64.20; p < 0.001) | ⬇ |
| SP | 10.11 | 1.83 | 0.01 | 0.01 | −55.91% (−64.13 to −45.81; p < 0.001) | ⬇ |
| South | 1.79 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.08 | −6.65% (−45.33 to 59.41; p = 0.764) | ⬌ |
| PR | 3.49 | 0.44 | 0.00*** | 0.00 | −51.24 (−66.61 to −28.79; p = 0.004) | ⬇ |
| SC | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.00*** | 0.00 | −45.13 (−76.73 to 29.36; p = 0.170) | ⬌ |
| RS | 0.77 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 20.22% (−34.33 to 120.08; p = 0.484) | ⬌ |
| Brazil | 69.10 | 40.78 | 1.51 | 1.68 | −36.55% (−44.57 to −27.36; p < 0.001) | ⬇ |
*Statistical significance (p < 0.05); 1. Rate per 100,000 inhabitants; AAPC: Average Annual Percent Change; ⬆ = Increasing trend; ⬇ = Decreasing trend; ⬌ = Stationary trend; RO: Rondônia; AC: Acre; AM: Amazonas; RR: Roraima; PA: Pará; AP: Amapá; TO: Tocantins; MA: Maranhão; PI: Piauí; CE: Ceará; RN: Rio Grande do Norte; PB: Paraíba; PE: Pernambuco; AL: Alagoas; SE: Sergipe; BA: Bahia; MG: Minas Gerais; ES: Espírito Santo; RJ: Rio de Janeiro; SP: São Paulo; PR: Paraná; SC: Santa Catarina; RS: Rio Grande do Sul; MS: Mato Grosso do Sul; MT: Mato Grosso; GO: Goiás; and DF: Distrito Federal. From 2020 onwards, the state of Espírito Santo adopted the e-SUS Health Surveillance System. **Therefore, for cases of urban arboviral diseases in Espírito Santo, only data available from Sinan Online (dengue and chikungunya) and Sinan Net (Zika) were considered. ***No cases in 2023