Table 3.
Trend estimates for raw counts and population-scaled administrative rates, 2015–2025.
| Series | Change, % | CAGR, % | APC, % (95% CI) | 2020 pulse, % (95% CI); p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw counts | ||||
| Registered morbidity | 178.1 | 10.8 | 10.1 (9.5–10.8) | −2.8 (−8.9 to 3.7); 0.340 |
| First-recorded patients | 229.5 | 12.7 | 11.2 (5.8–16.8) | −43.9 (−60.3 to −20.8); 0.005 |
| Annual E66 patients | 296.5 | 14.8 | 13.2 (8.4–18.2) | −39.0 (−55.7 to −16.0); 0.007 |
| E66-coded services | 332.5 | 15.8 | 14.2 (8.7–19.9) | −41.8 (−60.1 to −15.1); 0.011 |
| Population-scaled rates | ||||
| Registered morbidity | 186.0 | 11.1 | 10.5 (9.8–11.1) | −3.5 (−9.7 to 3.2); 0.253 |
| First-recorded patients | 238.8 | 13.0 | 11.5 (6.1–17.2) | −44.3 (−60.9 to −20.8); 0.005 |
| Annual E66 patients | 307.6 | 15.1 | 13.5 (8.7–18.6) | −39.4 (−56.3 to −16.1); 0.008 |
| E66-coded services | 344.7 | 16.1 | 14.5 (9.0–20.3) | −42.2 (−60.6 to −15.2); 0.011 |
APC, annual percentage change; CAGR, compound annual growth rate. Confidence intervals describe fitted-model uncertainty. The 2020 pulse is descriptive. Mann–Kendall, Theil–Sen and sensitivity estimates are reported in Supplementary Tables S2, S3.