Table 6.
| Measures | Variable | Category | 18 month | 24 month | 30 months | 36 months | |||||||||||||||
| Model | Variable | Category | Est | SE | % | Est | SE | % | Est | SE | % | Est | SE | % | |||||||
| AFD: AF duration; AFT: AF type (paroxysmal = 0, non-paroxysmal = 1); Est: estimate; LAD: left atrial dimension; LAEF: left atrial emptying fraction; LAVmax: maximal left atrial volume; LAVmin: minimal left atrial volume; LVEF: left ventricular ejection fraction; MR: mitral regurgitation; SE: standard error; %: percentages of significance of the independent predictors during 500 times of split-sample cumulative cross-validation. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| LAD | Intercept | 2 | −9.72 | 2.00 | 100.00 | −8.79 | 2.11 | 100.00 | −8.52 | 2.67 | 99.00 | −9.91 | 2.23 | 100.00 | |||||||
| 3 | −11.80 | 2.10 | 100.00 | −11.00 | 2.21 | 100.00 | −10.80 | 2.79 | 100.00 | −12.20 | 2.34 | 100.00 | |||||||||
| Sex | Male | −1.16 | 0.44 | 100.00 | −0.97 | 0.45 | 59.80 | −0.93 | 0.59 | 32.00 | −1.06 | 0.47 | 64.20 | ||||||||
| Age | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 67.40 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 62.80 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 81.20 | |||||||||
| AFD | 0.16 | 0.06 | 100.00 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 97.40 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 61.00 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 98.60 | |||||||||
| AFT | 1 | 0.77 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 0.43 | 84.20 | 1.36 | 0.56 | 78.00 | 1.37 | 0.45 | 96.40 | ||||||||
| MR grade | 0 | −0.03 | 0.71 | 0.00 | −0.73 | 0.72 | 8.20 | 0.07 | 0.97 | 0.20 | −0.33 | 0.75 | 1.20 | ||||||||
| 1 | 0.01 | 0.43 | 0.00 | −0.14 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.54 | 2.20 | −0.07 | 0.46 | 0.40 | |||||||||
| Hyperten- sion |
Yes | 0.07 | 0.39 | 0.00 | −0.46 | 0.42 | 8.40 | −0.74 | 0.53 | 18.20 | −0.58 | 0.43 | 16.80 | ||||||||
| LAD | 0.20 | 0.04 | 100.00 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 100.00 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 99.80 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 100.00 | |||||||||
| LAEF | Intercept | 2 | 5.03 | 1.98 | 82.20 | 6.97 | 1.85 | 100.00 | 9.43 | 2.70 | 99.00 | 9.00 | 2.18 | 100.00 | |||||||
| 3 | 2.77 | 1.94 | 21.80 | 4.43 | 1.77 | 77.80 | 5.82 | 2.47 | 70.40 | 5.71 | 2.01 | 85.40 | |||||||||
| Sex | Male | −0.18 | 0.50 | 2.60 | 0.05 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.71 | 0.80 | −0.12 | 0.55 | 1.20 | ||||||||
| Age | 0.01 | 0.02 | 1.60 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 1.80 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 12.40 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 4.00 | |||||||||
| AFD | 0.17 | 0.06 | 87.20 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 96.40 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 79.20 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 90.00 | |||||||||
| AFT | 1 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 9.00 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 8.20 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 6.40 | 0.65 | 0.51 | 17.40 | ||||||||
| MR grade | 0 | −0.82 | 0.76 | 8.60 | −0.72 | 0.75 | 9.00 | −0.13 | 1.10 | 1.20 | −0.13 | 0.81 | 1.00 | ||||||||
| 1 | −0.39 | 0.46 | 4.80 | −0.35 | 0.46 | 5.00 | −0.39 | 0.64 | 2.80 | −0.47 | 0.51 | 7.60 | |||||||||
| Hyperten- sion |
Yes | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.43 | 6.20 | 0.16 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 5.80 | ||||||||
| LAEF | −0.11 | 0.02 | 100.00 | −0.15 | 0.03 | 100.00 | −0.23 | 0.04 | 100.00 | −0.20 | 0.03 | 100.00 | |||||||||
| LAVmax | Intercept | 2 | −14.00 | 3.36 | 100.00 | −13.80 | 2.96 | 100.00 | −14.40 | 3.86 | 100.00 | −17.20 | 3.30 | 100.00 | |||||||
| 3 | −16.20 | 3.46 | 100.00 | −16.00 | 3.06 | 100.00 | −16.80 | 4.01 | 100.00 | −19.60 | 3.44 | 100.00 | |||||||||
| Sex | Male | −0.64 | 0.49 | 19.20 | −0.59 | 0.46 | 16.80 | −0.56 | 0.60 | 6.80 | −0.69 | 0.49 | 21.20 | ||||||||
| Age | 0.04 | 0.02 | 54.80 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 52.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 65.40 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 54.80 | |||||||||
| AFD | 0.21 | 0.06 | 99.40 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 99.20 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 79.60 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 99.40 | |||||||||
| AFT | 1 | 1.03 | 0.46 | 66.40 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 73.20 | 1.22 | 0.56 | 63.40 | 1.11 | 0.46 | 76.00 | ||||||||
| MR grade | 0 | −0.49 | 0.75 | 1.80 | −0.47 | 0.71 | 2.60 | 0.04 | 0.99 | 0.20 | −0.19 | 0.76 | 0.40 | ||||||||
| 1 | −0.02 | 0.46 | 0.40 | −0.01 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 5.00 | −0.10 | 0.47 | 0.40 | |||||||||
| Hyperten- sion |
Yes | −0.33 | 0.43 | 3.60 | −0.27 | 0.41 | 2.40 | −0.58 | 0.52 | 9.80 | −0.41 | 0.43 | 5.40 | ||||||||
| LAVmax | 0.29 | 0.07 | 100.00 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 100.00 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 100.00 | 0.37 | 0.07 | 100.00 | |||||||||
| LAVmin | Intercept | 2 | −10.30 | 2.39 | 100.00 | −11.20 | 2.23 | 100.00 | −13.30 | 3.10 | 100.00 | −14.10 | 2.53 | 100.00 | |||||||
| 3 | −12.60 | 2.51 | 100.00 | −13.60 | 2.37 | 100.00 | −16.10 | 3.32 | 100.00 | −17.00 | 2.73 | 100.00 | |||||||||
| Sex | Male | −0.42 | 0.50 | 6.20 | −0.28 | 0.48 | 3.20 | −0.29 | 0.63 | 1.00 | −0.46 | 0.52 | 8.00 | ||||||||
| Age | 0.03 | 0.02 | 28.60 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 27.40 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 51.40 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 29.40 | |||||||||
| AFD | 0.20 | 0.06 | 98.20 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 98.40 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 82.40 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 97.40 | |||||||||
| AFT | 1 | 0.61 | 0.49 | 14.40 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 18.60 | 0.84 | 0.59 | 18.20 | 0.79 | 0.49 | 29.40 | ||||||||
| MR grade | 0 | −0.44 | 0.78 | 1.20 | −0.32 | 0.75 | 1.40 | 0.13 | 1.04 | 0.60 | 0.21 | 0.81 | 2.00 | ||||||||
| 1 | −0.03 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.46 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 2.20 | −0.05 | 0.49 | 0.40 | |||||||||
| Hyperten- sion |
Yes | −0.23 | 0.43 | 1.80 | −0.09 | 0.42 | 1.00 | −0.50 | 0.55 | 5.40 | −0.26 | 0.45 | 2.20 | ||||||||
| LAVmin | 0.26 | 0.05 | 100.00 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 100.00 | 0.31 | 0.07 | 100.00 | 0.36 | 0.06 | 100.00 | |||||||||
| LVEF | Intercept | 2 | 0.81 | 2.02 | 0.00 | 0.81 | 2.02 | 0.00 | 6.02 | 3.50 | 32.00 | 1.26 | 2.09 | 0.40 | |||||||
| 3 | −0.99 | 2.02 | 0.00 | −0.99 | 2.02 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 3.45 | 6.40 | −0.74 | 2.09 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| Sex | Male | −0.56 | 0.44 | 0.00 | −0.56 | 0.44 | 0.00 | −1.70 | 0.65 | 81.80 | −1.08 | 0.48 | 63.80 | ||||||||
| Age | 0.04 | 0.02 | 100.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 100.00 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 71.60 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 32.60 | |||||||||
| AFD | 0.17 | 0.06 | 100.00 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 100.00 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 98.60 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 94.20 | |||||||||
| AFT | 1 | 1.15 | 0.43 | 100.00 | 1.15 | 0.43 | 100.00 | 2.10 | 0.65 | 98.40 | 1.70 | 0.49 | 100.00 | ||||||||
| MR grade | 0 | −0.89 | 0.83 | 0.00 | −0.89 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 8.80 | −1.04 | 0.75 | 23.40 | ||||||||
| 1 | −0.53 | 0.42 | 0.00 | −0.53 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.61 | 5.00 | −0.37 | 0.46 | 3.40 | |||||||||
| Hyperten- sion |
Yes | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.00 | −0.42 | 0.54 | 5.40 | 0.01 | 0.43 | 0.60 | ||||||||
| LVEF | −0.04 | 0.02 | 0.00 | −0.04 | 0.02 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.05 | 99.80 | −0.04 | 0.02 | 16.40 | |||||||||