Table 2.
Predictors of laboratory-confirmed measles infection among suspected patients aged ≤ 1 year: univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis, Diyarbakır, 2012–2024
| Univariable | Multivariable Model 1a |
Multivariable Model 2b |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | cOR (95%CI), p-value | aOR (95%CI), p value | aOR (95% CI), p value |
| Age group | |||
| 0–6 months | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7–9 months | 2.29 (1.63–3.23), < 0.001 | 2.18 (1.54–3.08), < 0.001 | 4.16 (2.33–7.41), < 0.001 |
| 10–12 months | 2.90 (2.09–4.01), < 0.001 | 2.86 (2.06–3.97), < 0.001 | 5.28 (3.03–9.20), < 0.001 |
| Migrant status | |||
| Non-immigrant | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Immigrant | 3.05 (1.06–8.75), 0.039 | 3.31 (1.09–10.02), 0.034 | 3.72 (0.97–14.17), 0.054 |
| Epidemic year | |||
| No | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Yes | 1.98 (1.36–2.86), < 0.001 | 1.92 (1.31–2.81), 0.001 | 1.15 (0.70–1.91), 0.57 |
| Season | |||
| Autumn–Winter | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Spring–Summer | 2.12 (1.50–3.00), < 0.001 | 1.95 (1.37–2.79), < 0.001 | 2.08 (1.14–3.82), 0.017 |
| Vaccination statusc | NC | NC | |
| Early dosed | 1 | — | — |
| Unvaccinated | 14.25 (1.95–104.05), 0.009 | — | — |
| Symptoms | |||
| Fever | |||
|
No Yes |
1 3.06 (1.92–4.89), <0.001 |
1 0.79 (0.41–1.52), 0.49 |
|
| Upper respiratory symptoms | |||
|
No Yes |
1 3.66 (2.54–5.27), <0.001 |
1 3.20 (1.87–5.48), <0.001 |
|
| Lymphadenopathy/Arthralgia | |||
|
No Yes |
1 3.00 (1.22–7.38), 0.017 |
1 2.60 (0.89–7.63), 0.08 |
|
| Hospitalization | |||
| No | 1 | 1 | |
| Yes | 4.48 (2.84–7.07), < 0.001 | 7.95 (4.21–15.00),<0.001 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; cOR; crude OR; aOR, adjusted odds ratio; NC, not calculable
aModel 1: age group+migrant status+season+epidemic year (Hosmer–Lemeshow p:0.97; Nagelkerke R²:0.093)
bModel 2: Model 1 + symptoms+hospitalization (Hosmer–Lemeshow p:0.94; Nagelkerke R²:0.284)
cVaccination status was excluded from multivariable analysis due to highly imbalanced category distributions
dEarly dose: Measles-containing vaccine administered at 9–11 months of age