Table 4.
Predictors of laboratory-confirmed measles infection among suspected patients aged > 1 year: univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis, Diyarbakır, 2012–2024
| Variable | Univariable | Multivariable Model 1a |
Multivariable Model 2b |
|---|---|---|---|
| cOR (95%CI), p-value | aOR (95%CI), p value | aOR (95% CI), p value | |
| *Age (years) | 1.08 (1.07–1.10), < 0.001 | 1.02 (0.99–1.04), 0.06 | 1.01 (0.99–1.04), 0.24 |
| Migrant status | |||
| Non-immigrant | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Immigrant | 2.19 (1.46–3.30), <0.001 | 1.06 (0.65–1.74), 0.80 | 1.28 (0.72–2.27), 0.39 |
| Epidemic year | |||
| No | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Yes | 9.43 (7.01–12.70), < 0.001 | 5.55 (4.05–7.62), < 0.001 | 4.06 (2.74–6.02), < 0.001 |
| Season | |||
| Autumn–Winter | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Spring–Summer | 3.37 (2.67–4.26), < 0.001 | 2.75 (2.11–3.60), < 0.001 | 1.80 (1.21–2.69), 0.004 |
| Vaccination status c | |||
| MCV1 + 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MCV1 | 3.45 (1.25–9.51), 0.017 | 3.82 (1.37–10.67), 0.011 | 3.64 (1.09–12.15), 0.035 |
| Unvaccinated | 29.41 (10.63–81.34), < 0.001 | 23.71 (8.43–66.72), < 0.001 | 16.13 (4.77–54.54), < 0.001 |
| Early Dose+MCV1 | 0.65 (0.16–2.66), 0.55 | 0.73 (0.18–3.00), 0.66 | 1.00 (0.21–4.70), 0.99 |
| Unknown | 32.48 (11.87–88.85), < 0.001 | 23.24 (8.40–64.81), < 0.001 | 17.26 (5.14–57.88), < 0.001 |
| Symptoms | |||
|
Fever No Yes |
1 3.84 (2.83–5.20), < 0.001 |
1 1.89 (1.20–2.95), 0.005 |
|
|
Upper respiratory symptoms No Yes |
1 4.26 (3.41–5.32), < 0.001 |
1 1.34 (0.90–1.96), 0.13 |
|
|
Lymphadenopathy/ Arthralgia No Yes |
1 2.32 (1.28–4.20), 0.005 |
1 1.43 (0.68–3.02), p:0.34 |
|
|
Hospitalization No Yes |
1 1.85 (1.37–2.50), < 0.001 |
1 2.24 (1.39–3.62), 0.001 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; cOR; crude OR; aOR, adjusted odds ratio; MCV, Measles-containing vaccine
* Age was modeled as a continuous variable; ORs for age indicate the change in odds associated with each 1-year increase
aModel 1: age+migrant status+ vaccination status+season+epidemic year (Hosmer–Lemeshow p < 0.001; Nagelkerke R²:0.411)
bModel 2: Model 1 + symptoms+hospitalization (Hosmer–Lemeshow p:0.27; Nagelkerke R²:0.408)
cEarly dose: MCV administered at 9–11 months of age; MCV1: one dose at ≥ 12 months; MCV1 + 2: two doses at ≥ 12 months