Fig. 2. Predictions for unlabeled associations using observational and synthetic data.

For panels a, c, e: each data point is the predicted probability for one distinct mammal species–viral family pair, averaged across five observed mammal–virus subgraphs (see the “Methods” section); horizontal red lines indicate the median of each distribution, horizontal blue lines indicate the extrema (minimum and maximum) predictions for each group, and violin width reflects the local density of predicted probabilities. Individual data points are not overlaid for groups exceeding 1000 pairs to avoid overplotting. a Violin plots comparing predicted probabilities for newly discovered associations (new labels; n = 686 pairs) against associations that remained unlabeled (n = 170,236 pairs). b Still-unlabeled prevalence–new label-sensitivity curve (SUPNLSC), showing the true positive rate (TPR) of new labels versus the predicted positive rate (PR) for still-unlabeled associations across all thresholds from 0 to 1 (sample sizes as in a); area under the curve (AUC) is indicated for the curve. c, e Violin plots comparing predicted probabilities for true/existent (Syn1: n = 51 pairs; Syn2: n = 450 pairs) versus false/nonexistent (Syn1: n = 5249 pairs; Syn2: n = 4780 pairs) unlabeled synthetic associations. d, f Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves evaluated on unlabeled synthetic associations for Syn1 and Syn2, respectively (sample sizes as in c, e), showing the true positive rate (TPR) versus false positive rate (FPR) across unlabeled synthetic associations at each threshold; area under the curve (AUC) is indicated for each curve.