Table 2. Estimates of modelled TB incidence (per 100 000 population) with 95% CI by 2025, 2030, and 2035 in four Latin American countries.
| Country | Year | TB incidence in poverty scenarios | % difference from the baseline scenario | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (95% CI) |
Increase (95% CI) |
Decrease (95% CI) |
Increase (95% CI) |
Decrease (95% CI) |
||
| Brazil | 2025 | 36.9 (34.9 to 40.4) | 41.0 (38.8 to 45.1) | 29.9 (28.1 to 32.8) | 11.3 (5.3 to 22.2) | −18.9 (-23.7 to −11.0) |
| 2030 | 35.6 (33.5 to 39.4) | 42.0 (39.5 to 46.6) | 25.8 (24.2 to 28.4) | 17.9 (10.9 to 30.7) | −27.5 (-32.0 to −20.1) | |
| 2035 | 34.3 (32.2 to 38.2) | 42.3 (39.6 to 47.3) | 23.2 (21.7 to 25.7) | 23.1 (15.3 to 37.7) | −32.2 (-36.5 to −25.1) | |
| Colombia | 2025 | 25.9 (23.4 to 28.5) | 28.4 (25.5 to 31.3) | 18.1 (16.2 to 19.9) | 9.4 (-1.5 to 20.6) | −30.2 (-37.2 to −23.0) |
| 2030 | 26.0 (23.1 to 28.9) | 29.8 (26.4 to 33.3) | 14.8 (13.2 to 16.4) | 14.7 (1.8 to 28.0) | −42.9 (-48.9 to −36.6) | |
| 2035 | 25.7 (22.7 to 28.9) | 30.9 (27.1 to 34.9) | 13.2 (11.8 to 14.7) | 20.0 (5.1 to 35.4) | −48.5 (-54.1 to −42.7) | |
| Mexico | 2025 | 17.7 (15.5 to 19.9) | 19.6 (17.2 to 22.1) | 14.1 (12.4 to 15.8) | 10.9 (-2.7 to 25.1) | −20.3 (-29.7 to −10.7) |
| 2030 | 17.2 (14.9 to 19.5) | 20.4 (17.6 to 23.4) | 12.0 (10.5 to 13.5) | 19.0 (2.6 to 35.9) | −29.9 (-38.5 to −21.0) | |
| 2035 | 16.7 (14.3 to 19.2) | 21.0 (17.9 to 24.3) | 10.8 (9.4 to 12.2) | 25.6 (6.9 to 45.2) | −35.3 (-43.6 to −26.8) | |
| Peru | 2025 | 84.0 (77.2 to 90.9) | 94.0 (86.3 to 102.0) | 68.6 (63.1 to 74.4) | 12.0 (2.8 to 21.5) | −18.2 (-24.8 to −11.4) |
| 2030 | 77.7 (70.7 to 85.0) | 93.2 (84.2 to 102.5) | 56.9 (52.0 to 62.0) | 19.9 (8.4 to 31.8) | −26.7 (-33.0 to −20.1) | |
| 2035 | 73.4 (66.1 to 81.0) | 91.8 (81.9 to 102.1) | 49.6 (45.1 to 54.3) | 25.0 (11.5 to 39.2) | −32.3 (-38.4 to −25.9) | |
TB, tuberculosis.