Table 4.

 Positive and negative predictive values of memory complaints, global cognitive impairment with no dementia, and impairment on domain specific cognitive tests for Alzheimer's disease and dementia^* at three year follow up with three step screening

	Step 1: Tests in the general population			Step 2: Testing only people with memory complaints			Step 3: Testing only people with both memory complaints and cognitive impairment
	Positive predictive value (95% CI)	Negative predictive value (95% CI)		Positive predictive value (95% CI)	Negative predictive value (95% CI)		Positive predictive value (95% CI)	Negative predictive value (95% CI)
Memory complaint	0.25 (0.21 to 0.29)	0.88 (0.86 to 0.90)		—	—		—	—
Global cognitive impairment with no dementia	0.35 (0.28 to 0.42)	0.87 (0.85 to 0.89)		0.45 (0.34 to 0.57)	0.80 (0.75 to 0.84)		—	—
Domain specific cognitive impairment:
Episodic/recall impairment	0.37 (0.23 to 0.51)	0.87 (0.83 to 0.91)		0.41 (0.22 to 0.60)	0.80 (0.71 to 0.88)		0.75 (0.51 to 0.99)	0.73 (0.56 to 0.89)
Verbal fluency impairment	0.34 (0.21 to 0.46)	0.88 (0.84 to 0.91)		0.44 (0.25 to 0.64)	0.82 (0.74 to 0.90)		0.85 (0.62 to 1)	0.65 (0.47 to 0.82)
Visuospatial impairment	0.33 (0.20 to 0.45)	0.87 (0.83 to 0.91)		0.33 (0.15 to 0.50)	0.79 (0.70 to 0.87)		0.24 (0.01 to 0.47)	0.49 (0.29 to 0.68)

^*Progression to dementia versus remaining alive or dying without dementia.