Table 3.
Annual probability of acquiring and transmitting HIV for men having sex with men who sell sex and who do not sell sex and for women who sell sex
| Men who sell sex to men (N = 1776) | |||||||||
| Variable* | For acquiring HIV through sex with men | For transmitting HIV through sex with women | For transmitting HIV through sex with men who do not sell sex | ||||||
| Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | |
| P | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| R | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.0004 |
| F | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 0.11 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.12 |
| E | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| N | 3.09 | 1.59 | 3.09 | 29.69 | 29.69 | 29.69 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 3.31 |
| M | 55.81 | 19.86 | 4.97 | 1.02 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 54.30 | 3.46 | 1.42 |
| I | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Annual probability per 1000 | 143.86 | 0.85 | 1.17 | 9.34 | 2.09 | 0.17 | 22.00 | 20.94 | 0.35 |
| Total | 146 | 12 | 43 | ||||||
| Men who sell sex to men frequently (N = 1098) | |||||||||
| Variable* | For acquiring HIV through sex with men | For transmitting HIV through sex with women | For transmitting HIV through sex with men who do not sell sex | ||||||
| Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | |
| P | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| R | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.0004 |
| F | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.122 | 0.40 | 0.222 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| E | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| N | 2.85 | 1.56 | 2.85 | 29.14 | 29.14 | 29.14 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.31 |
| M | 76.89 | 27.02 | 4.34 | 0.74 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 75.50 | 2.95 | 1.21 |
| I | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Annual probability per 1000 | 168.87 | 1.08 | 0.89 | 6.88 | 1.35 | 0.07 | 27.98 | 16.42 | 0.31 |
| Total | 171 | 8 | 45 | ||||||
| Men who sell sex to men infrequently (N = 678) | |||||||||
| Variable* | For acquiring HIV through sex with men | For transmitting HIV through sex with women | For transmitting HIV through sex with men who do not sell sex | ||||||
| Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | |
| P | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| R | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.0004 |
| F | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.12 |
| E | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| N | 4.00 | 1.94 | 4.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.31 |
| M | 23.07 | 8.92 | 5.22 | 1.48 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 21.57 | 3.72 | 1.52 |
| I | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Annual probability per 1000 | 87.68 | 0.53 | 1.75 | 12.61 | 3.28 | 0.30 | 11.13 | 28.24 | 0.35 |
| Total | 90 | 16 | 40 | ||||||
| Men who have sex with men but do not sell sex (N = 4885) | |||||||||
| Variable* | For acquiring HIV through sex with men | For transmitting HIV through sex with women | For transmitting HIV through sex with men who sell sex | ||||||
| Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | |
| P | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| R | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.0004 |
| F | 0.51 | 0.12 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| E | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| N | 3.89 | 3.31 | 3.89 | 34.09 | 34.09 | 34.09 | 2.85 | 3.09 | 1.59 |
| M | 10.64 | 4.35 | 13.13 | 2.26 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 2.95 | 2.27 | 0.81 |
| I | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Annual probability per 1000 | 53.87 | 1.24 | 5.18 | 11.31 | 2.08 | 0.07 | 0.46 | 5.97 | 0.03 |
| Total | 60 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
| Women who sell sex (N = 6648) | |||||||||
| Variable* | For acquiring HIV through sex with men | For transmitting HIV through sex with men | |||||||
| Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive vaginal sex | Insertive anal sex | |||||
| P | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||||
| R | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.0007 | 0.001 | ||||
| F | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||||
| E | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.70 | ||||
| N | 2.51 | 2.51 | 2.51 | 2.51 | 2.51 | ||||
| M | 171.78 | 0.17 | 0.43 | 171.78 | 0.17 | ||||
| I | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.08 | ||||
| Annual probability per 1000 | 21.27 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 21.77 | 0.04 | ||||
| Total | 22 | 22 | |||||||
*P is average HIV prevalence among sex partners of the group for which the probability is being estimated; R is risk of HIV transmission per act of unprotected sex; F is fraction of sex acts in which condom was used; E is effectiveness of condoms; N is average number of sex acts per partner in a year; M is average number of sex partners in a year; I is proportion of the susceptible group that is already infected with HIV.