Table 4.

Sensitivity analysis for relative probabilities between men who sell sex to men and women who sell sex for acquiring and transmitting HIV

	Annual probability per 1000
	Men who sell sex to men		Women who sell sex		Ratio between men who sell sex to men and women who sell sex†
	95% confidence interval*	Range*	95% confidence interval*	Range*	95% confidence interval*	Range*
Total for acquiring HIV through sex with men	116 – 179	94 – 211	17 – 27	14 – 32	4.9 – 9.2	3.7 – 12.8
Total for transmitting HIV to outside their group	42 – 71	33 – 86	18 – 26	15 – 30	2.0 – 3.2	1.5 – 4.3
For transmitting HIV through sex with women	8 – 16	6 – 20
For transmitting HIV through sex with men who do not sell sex	34 – 55	27 – 66
For transmitting HIV through sex with men			18 – 26	15 – 30

*Calculated with @Risk software from 100,000 iterations using random values between the plausible range of values for the variables in the formula. The range of values considered plausible is explained in the methods section.

†For acquiring HIV, this ratio was most sensitive to P for receptive vaginal sex (-0.50), R for receptive vaginal sex (-0.50), P for receptive anal sex (0.45) and R for receptive anal sex (0.44); for transmitting HIV, the results were most sensitive to P for insertive vaginal sex (-0.64), R for insertive vaginal sex (-0.45), and then to P and R for insertive anal sex (0.25 for both) and P and R for receptive anal sex (0.24 for both). The sensitivity of this ratio to the plausible range of values used for each variable can range from 0 (no sensitivity) to -1 (complete negative sensitivity) or 1 (complete positive sensitivity). Letters denoting the variables are explained in the methods section and the footnote for Table 3.