TABLE 1.
—Probit Estimates of the Impact of Taxes on Smoking Participation: 1989–1995 Natality Detail File Data
| No. of Observations(×1000) | Smoked, % | Low Birthweight, % | Marginal Effect of Probit Coefficient on Real Tax Variable (t statistic) | Implied Price Elasticity | Change in Smoking Percentage With $0.55 Tax Hike | |
| Full sample | 20 025 | 16.5 | 7.3 | –0.00066 (–26.7) | –0.70 | –3.6 |
| Race/ethnicity | ||||||
| Black, non-Hispanic | 3 498 | 13.6 | 13.4 | –0.00043 (–8.2) | –0.55 | –2.4 |
| White, non-Hispanic | 13 428 | 19.3 | 5.9 | –0.00087 (–26.2) | –0.79 | –4.8 |
| Hispanic | 2 198 | 5.5 | 6.5 | –0.00020 (–4.3) | –0.64 | –1.1 |
| Other | 901 | 12.0 | 6.7 | –0.00037 (–4.5) | –0.54 | –2.0 |
| Age, y | ||||||
| ≤19 | 2 674 | 18.4 | 9.7 | –0.00053 (–7.2) | –0.50 | –2.9 |
| 20–24 | 5 270 | 20.0 | 7.4 | –0.00063 (–11.7) | –0.55 | –3.5 |
| 25–29 | 5 798 | 15.8 | 6.4 | –0.00052 (–11.3) | –0.58 | –2.9 |
| 30–34 | 4 370 | 13.8 | 6.6 | –0.00093 (–19.2) | –1.18 | –5.1 |
| 35–39 | 1 648 | 12.8 | 7.8 | –0.00082 (–11.4) | –1.13 | –4.5 |
| ≥40 | 266 | 11.1 | 9.0 | –0.00065 (–3.9) | –1.02 | –3.6 |
| Marital status | ||||||
| Married | 14 141 | 12.9 | 5.8 | –0.00082 (–30.1) | –1.12 | –4.5 |
| Unmarried | 5 883 | 25.2 | 10.9 | –0.00053 (–10.4) | –0.37 | –2.9 |
| Education | ||||||
| Less than high school | 4 219 | 27.1 | 9.8 | –0.00047 (–7.0) | –0.30 | –2.6 |
| High school | 7 334 | 19.8 | 7.6 | –0.00056 (–13.1) | –0.49 | –3.1 |
| Some college | 4 207 | 11.7 | 6.3 | –0.00057 (–13.3) | –0.86 | –3.1 |
| College | 3 835 | 3.6 | 5.1 | –0.00070 (–26.2) | –3.39 | –3.8 |
| Education not reported | 429 | 17.5 | 8.0 | –0.00014 (0.6) | –0.14 | –0.7 |
| Parity | ||||||
| 1st | 8 201 | 13.6 | 7.6 | –0.00067 (–18.5) | –0.86 | –3.7 |
| 2nd | 6 498 | 16.4 | 6.3 | –0.00067 (–15.2) | –0.71 | –3.7 |
| 3rd | 3 238 | 19.8 | 7.2 | –0.00075 (–11.4) | –0.66 | –4.1 |
| 4th or higher | 2 087 | 22.9 | 9.6 | –0.00075 (–9.0) | –0.57 | –4.1 |
| Subgroup with high smoking rate | ||||||
| Unmarried, ≤24 y | 4 010 | 21.7 | 10.1 | –0.00057 (–9.4) | –0.46 | –3.1 |
| Unmarried, less than high school | 4 742 | 26.5 | 11.1 | –0.00048 (–8.3) | –0.32 | –2.7 |
| White, less than high school | 6 885 | 29.4 | 6.9 | –0.00063 (–11.9) | –0.37 | –3.4 |
| White, unmarried | 2 487 | 39.5 | 8.5 | –0.00050 (–5.7) | –0.22 | –2.8 |
Note. All models include (when appropriate) controls for age, race/ethnicity, education, and marital status of mother; parity of birth; adequacy of prenatal care; and sex of child, along with state and month of conception effects.