TABLE 2—
Impact of “truth” Campaign on Current Smoking Prevalence Among US Students: Monitoring the Future, 1997–2002
| All Grades, Odds Ratios (95% Confidence Intervals) | 1997–2002 by Grade, Odds Ratios (95% Confidence Intervals) | ||||||
| 1997–2002 | 1997–1999 + 2000 | 1997–1999 + 2001 | 1997–1999 + 2002 | 8th Grade | 10th Grade | 12th Grade | |
| “truth” exposure variables | |||||||
| “truth” exposure (GRP) | 0.78** (0.63, 0.97) | 0.90 (0.50, 1.62) | 0.66** (0.45, 0.98) | 0.63*** (0.45, 0.88) | 0.61** (0.39, 0.94) | 0.98 (0.73, 1.31) | 0.79 (0.56, 1.13) |
| “truth” exposure squared (GRP2) | 1.11* (1.00, 1.25) | 0.90 (0.34, 2.38) | 1.29 (0.94, 1.77) | 1.25** (1.04, 1.51) | 1.29** (1.01, 1.66) | 0.98 (0.84, 1.14) | 1.06 (0.87, 1.29) |
| Other explanatory variables | |||||||
| Time | 0.89*** (0.86, 0.94) | 0.92*** (0.87, 0.98) | 0.93*** (0.87, 0.98) | 0.92*** (0.87, 0.97) | 0.88*** (0.81, 0.96) | 0.90*** (0.85, 0.95) | 0.94** (0.88, 0.99) |
| Grade 10 | 1.50*** (1.40, 1.61) | 1.47*** (1.34, 1.60) | 1.48*** (1.36, 1.62) | 1.44*** (1.33, 1.57) | … | … | … |
| Grade 12 | 1.97*** (1.84, 2.10) | 1.84*** (1.71, 1.99) | 1.89*** (1.76, 2.04) | 1.90*** (1.77, 2.04) | … | … | … |
| African American | 0.28*** (0.26, 0.30) | 0.26*** (0.24, 0.29) | 0.28*** (0.26, 0.30) | 0.28*** (0.26, 0.30) | 0.37*** (0.33, 0.42) | 0.27*** (0.24, 0.31) | 0.24*** (0.21, 0.27) |
| Hispanic | 0.69*** (0.64, 0.74) | 0.68*** (0.63, 0.74) | 0.71*** (0.65, 0.77) | 0.71*** (0.65, 0.76) | 0.88** (0.79, 0.98) | 0.59*** (0.54, 0.67) | 0.64*** (0.57, 0.71) |
| Asian | 0.51*** (0.46, 0.56) | 0.48*** (0.43, 0.54) | 0.51*** (0.46, 0.57) | 0.51*** (0.46, 0.57) | 0.49*** (0.41, 0.59) | 0.55*** (0.47, 0.65) | 0.51*** (0.44, 0.58) |
| Other race/ethnicity | 0.91*** (0.86, 0.97) | 0.89*** (0.83, 0.95) | 0.92** (0.87, 0.99) | 0.93** (0.87, 0.99) | 0.95 (0.87, 1.04) | 0.92* (0.84, 1.00) | 0.86*** (0.77, 0.95) |
| Male | 0.91*** (0.88, 0.93) | 0.90*** (0.87, 0.94) | 0.89*** (0.86, 0.93) | 0.89*** (0.86, 0.93) | 0.88*** (0.83, 0.94) | 0.83*** (0.79, 0.87) | 0.99 (0.94, 1.04) |
| Weekly income | 1.01*** (1.01, 1.01) | 1.01*** (1.01, 1.01) | 1.01*** (1.01, 1.01) | 1.01*** (1.01, 1.01) | 1.01*** (1.01, 1.01) | 1.01*** (1.01, 1.01) | 1.01*** (1.01, 1.01) |
| Mother is high school graduate | 0.87*** (0.83, 0.91) | 0.86*** (0.82, 0.91) | 0.89*** (0.85, 0.94) | 0.88*** (0.83, 0.92) | 0.76*** (0.69, 0.82) | 0.88*** (0.82, 0.94) | 1.02 (0.95, 1.10) |
| Mother had some college | 0.82*** (0.78, 0.86) | 0.82*** (0.78, 0.87) | 0.84*** (0.79, 0.88) | 0.82*** (0.78, 0.87) | 0.65*** (0.59, 0.70) | 0.78*** (0.73, 0.84) | 1.06 (0.99, 1.14) |
| Father is high school graduate | 0.72*** (0.75, 0.82) | 0.80*** (0.76, 0.84) | 0.80*** (0.76, 0.84) | 0.79*** (0.75, 0.83) | 0.70*** (0.65, 0.76) | 0.77*** (0.61, 0.71) | 0.88*** (0.81, 0.95) |
| Father had some college | 0.67*** (0.64, 0.70) | 0.68*** (0.64, 0.72) | 0.70*** (0.66, 0.74) | 0.69*** (0.65, 0.73) | 0.53*** (0.49, 0.58) | 0.66*** (0.61, 0.71) | 0.79*** (0.74, 0.86) |
Note. GRP = gross rating point. All models include sampling weights, and standard errors were adjusted for school-level clustering. Control variables included media market indicator variables, inflation-adjusted state per capita tobacco control expenditures, state-level average cigarette prices, and indicator variables for missing or unspecified race and parental education data. Odds ratios for the “truth” campaign GRPs represent the odds of smoking for every increase in GRPs by 10 000.
*P<.10; **P<.05; ***P<.01.