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. 2006 Mar 3;6:5. doi: 10.1186/1471-2431-6-5

Table 1.

Input data for Markov model.

Parameter Value (range) Source(s)
Annual risk of tuberculous infection (0.001–0.01) Assumed
Annual rate of decline in the risk of infection 0.14 (0.0–0.14) 23
Relative risk of primary infection if vaccinateda 0.39 (0.20–0.43) 20–22, 32
Relative risk of meningeal or miliary TB if vaccinateda 0.14 (0.05–0.35) 1,19
Risk of TB following primary infectiona 0.22 (0.14–0.30) 23, 25, 26
Risk of TB due to reactivationa 0.0009 (0.0008–0.001) 23, 25
Risk of TB following exogenous reinfectiona 0.058 (0.028–0.092) 23, 25
Proportion of TB cases with meningeal TB (0–4 years) 0.040 (0.033–0.047) 33
Proportion of TB cases with meningeal TB (5–14 years) 0.015 (0.006–0.020)
Risk of neurological sequel from meningeal TBa 0.29 (0.13–0.39) 24, 34, 35
Proportion of TB cases with miliary TB (0–4 years) 0.0086 (0.0050–0.012) 33
Proportion of TB cases with miliary TB (5–14 years) 0.0055 (0.0015–0.01)
Risk of disseminated BCG infection among vaccinated infants born with SCIDb 0.36 (0.19–0.56) 36
Risk of fatality from meningeal TBb 0.091 (0.030–0.15) Health Canada data
Risk of fatality from miliary TBb 0.29 (0.23–0.36)
Risk of fatality from other forms of TBb 0.0013 (0.0013–0.007)
Risk of fatality, unvaccinated infants with SCIDa 0.25 (0.19–0.33) 37–39
Risk of fatality, disseminated BCG infectiona 0.87 (0.8–0.97) 2, 5
Utility value for acute meningeal TBa 0.93 (0.81–0.95) Manitoba hospital data
Utility value for miliary TBa 0.92 (0.69–0.97)
Utility value for other forms of TBa 0.98 (0.97–0.98)
Utility value for neurological sequel following acute meningeal TBc 0.43 (0.37–0.49) Survey

Distributions in Monte-Carlo simulations: a triangular; b β; c normal