Table 5.

Ratings and accuracy of predictions

	Derivation-Sample			Validation-Sample			Validation-Sample
Outcome within the next shift	physical attack (n = 14)			physical attack (n = 37)			physical attack OR intense preventive measure ** (n = 121)
Prediction method and cut-off points	BVC >= 3	BVC-VAS >= 7	VAS >= 4	BVC >= 3	BVC-VAS >= 7	VAS >= 4	BVC >= 3	BVC-VAS >= 7	VAS >= 4
Ratings	1203	1189*	1189	2084	2084	2084	2084	2084	2084
True Positives	9	11	12	25	20	21	74	82	91
False Negatives	5	2	1	12	17	16	47	39	30
True Negatives	1117	1095	959	1852	1884	1692	1817	1862	1678
False Positives	72	81	217	195	163	355	146	101	285
Sensitivity/Specificity in %	64/94	85/93	92/82	68/91	54/92	57/83	61/93	68/95	75/86

* 4 VAS-ratings missing

**seclusion and/or mechanical restraint and/or forced injection