Table 1.
Clinical Probabilities and Cost Inputs Used in Model
| Variable | Base-case | Range | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probabilities | |||
| Probability of cardiac arrest | 0.2 | 0.01 to 1.00 | 15–17 |
| Probability of automated external defibrillator (AED) use on arrest victim | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.00 | 8,10,20 |
| Probability of initial resuscitation with emergency medical services (EMS) | 0.25 | 0.15 to 0.35 | 27–29 |
| Probability of initial resuscitation with AED | 0.50 | 0.25 to 0.70 | 8–10 |
| Probability of surviving to hospital discharge with EMS | 0.10 | 0.02 to 0.20 | 27–30 |
| Probability of surviving to hospital discharge with AED | 0.25 | 0.20 to 0.50 | 8–10,31 |
| Probability of dying in first year after cardiac arrest | 0.20 | 0.10 to 0.40 | 32–35 |
| Probability of dying in subsequent years after cardiac arrest | 0.15 | 0.10 to 0.20 | 32–35 |
| Effectiveness | |||
| Mean life expectancy for arrest survivors, y | 5.00 | 3.00 to 7.00 | 32–35 |
| Probability of surviving unimpaired | 0.87 | 0.80 to 0.95 | 30,36 |
| Probability of surviving moderately impaired | 0.09 | 0.05 to 0.15 | 30,36 |
| Probability of surviving severely impaired | 0.04 | 0.00 to 0.10 | 30,36 |
| Quality of life | |||
| Unimpaired | 0.85 | 0.7 to 1.00 | 36,37 |
| Moderately impaired | 0.20 | 0 to 0.40 | 40 |
| Severely impaired | 0.1 | 0 to 0.20 | 40 |
| Costs, $ | |||
| AED purchase | 2,000 | 250 to 3,000 | 21 |
| AED maintenance | 40 | 20 to 80 | 21 |
| AED training | 270 | 100 to 800 | 22–24 |
| AED supplies per use | 150 | 100 to 200 | 21 |
| Hospitalization | |||
| Survive to discharge | 49,000 | 30,000 to 200,000 | 14,22,25,26 |
| Death in hospital | 3,900 | 2,800 to 31,000 | 14,22,25,26 |
| Future medical costs | |||
| First year | 10,600 | 9,000 to 20,000 | 22 |
| Subsequent years | 7,800 | 6,200 to 15,000 | 22 |