Table 2.
Probability Estimates for Decision Model
| Probability | Base Case (Range) | Reference(s) |
|---|---|---|
| Failure to re-expand with thoracoscopic surgery, % | 3.13 (0.24 to 16.7) | 17, 24, 32–39 |
| Surgical death with thoracoscopic surgery, % | 0 (0 to 1.0) | 17, 26, 34, 35, 37–44 |
| Recurrence after thoracoscopic surgery, %/y | 2.31 (0.84 to 10.21) | 16, 17, 24, 34, 35, 37–46 |
| Mortality after thoracoscopic surgery, %/y | 0 (NA) | 16, 17, 24, 34, 35, 37–46 |
| Failure to re-expand with open thoracotomy, % | 0 (NA) | 24, 34, 37, 47, 48 |
| Surgical death with open thoracotomy, % | 0 (0 to 1.0) | 24, 34, 37, 47, 48 |
| Recurrence after the first open thoracotomy, %/y | 0.65 (0.06 to 2.40) | 14, 24, 34, 37, 47 |
| Recurrence after the second open thoracotomy, %/y | 0 (NA) | 14, 24, 34, 37, 47 |
| Mortality after open thoracotomy, %/y | 0 (NA) | 14, 24, 34, 37, 47 |
| Failure to re-expand with pleural drainage, % | 27.4 (18.0 to 34.4) | 3, 49 |
| Surgical death with pleural drainage, % | 0 (0 to 0.1) | 3, 49–51 |
| Recurrence after the first pleural drainage, %/y | 21.7 (11.5 to 29.1) | 3, 9, 10, 29 |
| Mortality after pleural drainage first, %/y | 0 (NA) | 3, 9, 10, 29 |
| Recurrence after the second pleural drainage, %/y | 36.3 (10.0 to 50.0) | 10 |
| Mortality after the second pleural drainage, %/y | 0 (NA) | 9, 10 |
| Failure to re-expand with pleurodesis, % | 9.0 (0 to 12.0) | 52 |
| Surgical death with pleurodesis, % | 0 (0 to 0.1) | 52 |
| Recurrence after pleurodesis, %/y | 5.49 (2.29 to 7.73) | 23, 28, 29 |
| Mortality after pleurodesis, %/y | 0 (NA) | 23, 28, 29 |
NA, not applicable from model assumptions.