Figure 1.
The effect of the prior likelihood of a disease on the ability of a test to predict its presence in a patient. It is assumed that 90% of patients with lupus and 5% of patients without lupus will have a positive ANA test. (A) The ability of a positive ANA test to predict the presence of lupus in a population with a low likelihood of the disease (1% of patients have lupus). (B) The predictive ability of a positive ANA test in a population with a high likelihood of the disease (50% of patients have lupus).