Table 2.
Modelled estimates of the effects of climatic covariates on malaria incidence in the districts of Zimbabwe, including spatial and temporal variance. The smaller value of DIC indicates a better fitting model.
| Covariates | Non spatial Model | Spatial Model | Spatial-temporal model |
| IRR (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) | |
| Mean temperature (°C) | 5.332 (4.700, 5.885) | 6.533 (4.251, 8.812) | 7.634 (6.890, 8.349) |
| Maximum temperature (°C) | 0.440 (0.414, 0.485) | 0.363 (0.306, 0.446) | 0.291 (0.272, 0.322) |
| Minimum temperature (°C) | 0.700 (0.657, 0.752) | 0.479 (0.357, 0.623) | 0.500 (0.412, 0.581) |
| Vapour pressure (hPa) | 1.003 (0.998, 1.008) | 1.036 (1.020, 1.050) | 1.018 (1.005, 1.028) |
| NDVI | 2.700 (2.267, 3.132) | 1.478 (1.011, 2.256) | 1.375 (0.913, 1.701) |
| Rainfall (mm) | 1.017 (1.012, 1.021) | 1.005 (0.999, 1.011) | 1.006 (1.000, 1.012) |
Spatial variation ( ) |
1.346 (1.078, 1.673) | 18.620 (15.280, 22.710) | |
Temporal variation ( ) |
0.004 (0.001, 0.010) | ||
| DIC | 8414.270 | 8113.280 | 7912.610 |
NDVI – normalized difference vegetation index; DIC – deviance information criterion; IRR – incidence rate ratio; CI – credible intervals