Table 3.

One-year follow-up of patients flagged by each model for three different thresholds in 2000/2001

No. of patients flagged	Model	Deaths within 365 days	Death rate within 365 days	Total spells within 365 days	Mean total spells per flagged patient within 365 days	Total tariff for those spells (£)	ACS spells within 365 days	Mean ACS spells per flagged patient within 365 days	Total tariff for those spells (£)
250 000	A	65 281	26.2	318 500	1.28	792 472 178	103 331	0.41	249 779 717
	B	37 938	15.2	216 315	0.86	513 893 374	110 557	0.44	247 695 869
	C	45 648	18.3	319 262	1.28	740 406 354	106 102	0.42	239 201 135
150 000	A	39 521	26.3	229 193	1.53	556 400 391	78 117	0.52	186 770 480
	B	29 646	19.8	163 033	1.09	401 823 700	87 489	0.58	206 500 895
	C	29 029	19.3	231 918	1.55	529 087	006 79 756	0.53	179 562 694
50 000	A	12 755	25.4	113 805	2.26	258 087 832	40 650	0.81	92 876 647
	B	11 911	24.1	81 032	1.64	196 457 208	47 069	0.95	110 867 264
	C	9 837	19.9	115 203	2.33	247 929 721	40 881	0.83	88 709 597

ACS, spells with an ambulatory care sensitive condition (those most amenable to case management) recorded in one or more diagnosis field; model A, all index spells, adjusting for condition most amenable to case management, predicting 2+ further spells in next 365 days; model B, index spells for only conditions most amenable to case management, predicting 2+ further spells in next 365 days; model C, all index spells, predicting 2+ further spells and survival in next 365 days