Table 2.
Logistic regression models for scrapie risk (Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) shown in bold differ significantly (P < 0.05) from one)
| attribute | never versus ever | never versus homebred | purchased versus homebred | ||||||
| AOR | 95% CL | AOR | 95% CL | AOR | 95% CL | ||||
| lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | ||||
| region | |||||||||
| East Midlands | baseline | - | - | baseline | - | - | - | - | - |
| eastern England | 0.90 | 0.34 | 2.37 | 1.32 | 0.12 | 14.42 | - | - | - |
| north-east England | 0.63 | 0.30 | 1.31 | 0.55 | 0.10 | 2.95 | - | - | - |
| north-west England | 1.05 | 0.55 | 2.00 | 1.17 | 0.26 | 5.31 | - | - | - |
| central and south Scotland | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.60 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 1.07 | - | - | - |
| Scottish Highlands & Islands | 0.53 | 0.25 | 1.12 | 0.74 | 0.16 | 3.35 | - | - | - |
| south-east England | 1.18 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.71 | 0.12 | 4.15 | - | - | - |
| Shetland Isles | 3.42 | 1.55 | 7.57 | 7.54 | 1.66 | 34.20 | - | - | - |
| south-west England | 0.83 | 0.46 | 1.48 | 1.39 | 0.36 | 5.45 | - | - | - |
| central and south Wales | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.63 | 0.79 | 0.20 | 3.14 | - | - | - |
| North Wales | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.58 | 0.30 | 0.05 | 1.76 | - | - | - |
| West Midlands | 0.74 | 0.39 | 1.41 | 1.05 | 0.23 | 4.91 | - | - | - |
| Yorkshire and Humberside | 1.46 | 0.79 | 2.68 | 1.53 | 0.34 | 6.84 | - | - | - |
| farm type | |||||||||
| hill | - | - | - | - | - | - | baseline | - | - |
| upland | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.42 | 0.18 | 1.01 |
| lowland | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.35 | 0.18 | 0.66 |
| flock type | |||||||||
| purebred | baseline | - | - | baseline | - | - | - | - | - |
| commercial | 0.55 | 0.37 | 0.81 | 0.46 | 0.24 | 0.86 | - | - | - |
| both | 1.35 | 0.84 | 2.17 | 1.70 | 0.82 | 3.51 | - | - | - |
| flock size interacting with stocking density | |||||||||
| first quartile | 1.06 | 0.84 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.29 | - | - | - |
| second quartile | 1.69 | 0.96 | 2.98 | 1.96 | 0.80 | 4.81 | - | - | - |
| third quartile | 2.13 | 1.17 | 3.89 | 3.75 | 1.27 | 11.06 | - | - | - |
| fourth quartile | 1.58 | 0.90 | 2.75 | 1.96 | 0.80 | 4.77 | - | - | - |
| proportion homebred | - | - | - | 1.36 | 1.22 | 1.50 | 1.37 | 1.24 | 1.52 |
| lambs bought-in | |||||||||
| no | - | - | - | baseline | - | - | - | - | - |
| yes | - | - | - | 2.13 | 1.16 | 3.89 | - | - | - |
| lambing practices | |||||||||
| individual pens in building | baseline | - | - | baseline | - | - | - | - | - |
| unconfined at pasture | 1.37 | 0.80 | 2.35 | 3.46 | 0.94 | 12.78 | - | - | - |
| group pens at pasture | 1.89 | 0.81 | 4.42 | 3.70 | 0.63 | 21.66 | - | - | - |
| group pens in building | 1.90 | 1.17 | 3.10 | 5.09 | 1.44 | 17.92 | - | - | - |
| did not lamb | 2.33 | 0.88 | 6.21 | 16.63 | 2.45 | 113.0 | - | - | - |
| lambing location | |||||||||
| always the same place | baseline | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| sometimes the same place | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.90 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| never the same place | 1.83 | 0.48 | 7.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ewe breeds | |||||||||
| Suffolk | - | - | - | 2.21 | 1.32 | 3.68 | - | - | - |
| Texel cross | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.86 |
| Charollais cross | 2.98 | 1.92 | 4.63 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Bluefaced Leicester | - | - | - | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.93 | - | - | - |
| Swaledale | - | - | - | 8.56 | 3.40 | 21.60 | - | - | - |
| ram breeds | |||||||||
| Suffolk | 1.58 | 1.20 | 2.07 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Blackface | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.75 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Charollais | - | - | - | 2.55 | 1.33 | 4.91 | - | - | - |
| Beulah Speckled Face | - | - | - | 0.20 | 0.04 | 1.00 | - | - | - |
| Swaledale | 2.95 | 1.58 | 5.50 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test | P = 0.41 | P = 0.18 | P = 0.94 | ||||||