Figure 2.
(a) Predicted and observed October–December rainfall and (b) simulated maize yields, Katumani, Kenya. Maize yields are from APSIM run with 20 realizations of stochastic rainfall disaggregated from monthly hindcasts, 40 kg ha−1 applied N fertilizer, stand density of 3.5 m−2 (courtesy of K. P. C. Rao, ICRISAT Nairobi). Maize yields simulated with observed rainfall serve as the benchmark for comparison. Rainfall hindcasts are based on a linear transformation of ECHAM four simulations, forced with observed SST boundary conditions (Hansen & Indeje 2004).