Table 1.

Summary of SRES development scenarios and GCM outputs used in this study.

scenario/model	HADCM3	ECHAM	CSIRO	CGCM2	NCAR-PCM
A1FI	×
A1B			×
A2	×	×	×	×	×
B2	×	×	×	×	×
B1	×		×

A total of 14 combinations of socio-economic and climate scenarios were used. Notes on climate models: HadCM3 is a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM developed at the UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and is described by Gordon et al. (2000) and Pope et al. (2000). The coupled global model ECHAM4/OPYC3 was developed in co-operation between the Max-Planck-Institut Für Meteorologie (MPI) and Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) in Hamburg, Germany. (Roeckner et al. 1992; Oberhuber 1993; Roeckner et al. 1996). The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) coupled model involves global atmospheric, oceanic, sea-ice, and biospheric sub-models (Gordon & O'Farrell 1997; Hirst et al. 1997). The Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis obtained results for SRES emission scenarios with the second version of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) (Flato et al. 2000). The Parallel Climate Model (NCAR-PCM) operated at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has been sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and is a joint effort involving several research laboratories in the United States. Details of the PCM control run were described in Washington et al. (2000). Notes on SRES scenarios. Scenario A1 represents a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system: fossil-intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B). Scenario A2 portrays a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is that of strengthening regional cultural identities; with high population growth rates, and less concern for rapid economic development. Scenario B1 represents a convergent world with rapid change in economic structures, ‘dematerialization’, and introduction of clean technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to environmental and social sustainability, including concerted efforts for rapid technology development, dematerialization of the economy, and improving equity. Scenario B2 depicts a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is again a heterogeneous world with less rapid, and more diverse technological change.