Table 1.

Mean percentage increases in growing season precipitation in the tropical northern Africa region for each model and scenario combination in 2081–2099 with respect to the observed 1971–1989 climatology.

scenario	GFDL	MIROC	MRI	PCM	mean
A1B	−25.2	11.9	3.5	4.4	−1.4
A2	−33.9	10.3	1.6	1.7	−5.1
B1	−13.8	−2.8	6.9	4.0	−1.4
mean	−24.3	6.5	4.0	3.4	−2.6

All GCM values are ‘nudged’ by removing the mean value for 1971–1989 calculated by that GCM and adding on the observed mean for the same period. There are small percentage decreases for all scenarios, but these are almost entirely down to the GFDL model.