Table 3.
Comparative success of four different statistical models aiming to predict male An. gambiae age group as a function of their reproductive morphology (Table 2). Overall success indicates the percent of a given data set (original or blind trial) whose age-grade was correctly predicted by the model; with age-specific success indicating the proportion of 'young' and 'old' males correctly classified within these groups.
| Quantitative Model | Proportion of variation explained (original data) | Percent of data classified into the correct age groups (%) | |||||
| Original Data Set | Blind Trial Data Set | ||||||
| (r2) | Overall success | Age group | Age-specific Success | Overall Success | Age group | Age-specific success | |
| Continuous | 0.78 | 90.5 | ≤ 4 > 4 |
90.7 90.3 |
76 | ≤ 4 > 4 |
60 89 |
| Median | 0.73 | 88.1 | ≤ 4 > 4 |
92.6 84.0 |
81 | ≤ 4 > 4 |
66 93 |
| Quartile | 0.79 | 90.3 | ≤ 4 > 4 |
89.8 90.8 |
86 | ≤ 4 > 4 |
74 95 |
| Break points | 0.78 | 90.3 | ≤ 4 > 4 |
89.8 90.8 |
89 | ≤ 4 > 4 |
81 95 |