Table 1.

Summary of maximum likelihood estimates and 95% confidence intervals (in parentheses) under the original, carrier, and wider genetic susceptibility models. (Original model diagnostic test sensitivity scenario: 100% sensitive for last 100τ% of incubation period. n/a: prevalence estimates unreliable without survey data. Carrier and wider genetic susceptibility models fitted to both clinical cases and survey data. Scenario I for diagnostic test sensitivity: preclinical infections—100% sensitive for last 100τ% of incubation period; subclinical infections—100% sensitive. Scenario II for diagnostic test sensitivity: preclinical infections—90% sensitive for last 50% of incubation period; subclinical infections—50% sensitive. Optimistic scenario for $\overline{\text{MM}}$ group: incubation period distribution—3.2 times that for MM group; susceptibility—0.05 times that for MM group. Pessimistic scenario for $\overline{\text{MM}}$ group: incubation period distribution—1.9 times that for MM group; susceptibility—equal to that for MM group.)

	case numbers, 2004–2080	number infected, 2004	probability of subclinical infection	−2×log-likelihood
original model
clinical cases only	70 (10–190)	n/a	n/a	21.3
clinical cases and survey data	133 (32–3780)	140 (36–10 050)	n/a	45.0
carrier model
scenario I	69 (10–190)	3000 (520–6810)	0.93 (0.7–0.97)	34.7
scenario II	69 (10–190)	5413 (1130–13 440)	0.96 (0.88–0.99)	34.8
wider genetic susceptibility
optimistic	54			47.5
pessimistic	363			40.3