Table 2.

Situation by 2020 (Delgado et al. 2003).

(Apparent errors are caused by rounding of values. Fishmeal equivalent round weight: using a conversion factor of 5.)

						price difference (%)
scenarios	food fish supply (106 t)	capture (106 t)	aquaculture (106 t)	fish meal (106 t) (round weight)	consumption (kg per capita)	high-value species	low-value species	fishmeal
present situation (1997)	93	64	29	—	15.7	—	—	—
baseline scenario	130	76	54	39.5	17.1	15	6	18
50% faster aquaculture development rate	144	74	69	—	19.0	9	−12	42
if Chinese production was overestimated	123	69	53	—	16.1	16	6	21
with more efficient use of feeds in aquaculture	131	77	54	—	17.2	14	5	−16
50% slower aquaculture development rate	119	76	41	—	15.7	19	25	0
gradual resource depletion	108	53	55	—	14.2	69	35	134