real state of the fishery sector
		if the vision/policy was right	if the vision/policy was wrong
visions and policies of techno-optimists	fishing technology can evolve to face ecosystem and equity challenges	low-impact technology adopted; small- and large-scale fishing coevolve	high-impact technology dominate; large-scale fishing dooms small-scale
	the market (including consumer controls) will ‘fix’ most problems for the benefit of all	Eco-labelling fixes the problem; continued growth provides excluded fishers with alternative employment	consumers’willingness to pay is limited; rising prices fuel overcapacity; no alternative employment
	competition for the market will select eco-efficient entrepreneurs	VMS and zero tolerance eliminate illegal and destructive fishing	legal fishing is quasi impossible; armed pirating and conflicts are the rule
	the ecosystem is reversible, predictable and can be modified	ecosystem rehabilitated and enhanced; fluctuations accounted for; rare collapses	degraded ecosystem; unpredictable fluctuations; frequent collapses
	fishing is the main driving force, not pollution	fishing is controlled and reduced; profitability and stocks rebuild; fish is the healthiest food	polluted ecosystems produce less at higher costs; fish is a contaminated food
	aquaculture production will fill supply gap	intensive practices, selective breeding and genetic manipulations will lead to food security	environmental damage; contaminated food; focus on carnivores aggravates overfishing
visions and policies of techno-sceptics	fishing technology will not meet the challenge; better governance will	good governance is in place (ecosystem approach to fisheries, precaution, indicators); long-term interests are valued	fox in the hen pen; short-term interests; lip-service to ecosystem maintenance
	international collaboration can correct market failures	World Trade Organization ruling and zero-subsidies policies lead to economically effective fisheries	free trade dooms local environmental protection; global supplies threatened
	community development is the key, in the context of strong use rights	privatization improves stewardship and compliance; conflicts are resolved locally	privatization leads to concentration, exclusion, and expansion of violent conflicts
	alternative employment can be created/found	overall growth provides alternative jobs to small-scale fisheries; social peace	lack of alternative employment; ghettoes of ‘sea-less’ fishers in rural areas; social unrest
	the system is complex, nonlinear, naturally oscillating and partly irreversible	ecosystem and precautionary approaches; flexible development; improved forecasts; contingency plans	overriding weight of social risk and political costs in absence of safety nets; insufficient research; poor forecast; costly ‘surprises’
	aquaculture and capture fisheries will be integrated (e.g. in integrated coastal area management)	harmonious responsible co-development maintains good and accessible supplies	competition for space and resources, which in the market leads to disruptive booms and busts