Table 1.
Summary of the eight studies included in the systematic review
| Study | Quality rating* | No of sites/doctors | Individual patient data | Median (IQR) CPS (days) | Median (IQR) AS (days) | Rank correlation | Weighted κ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Parkes, 19723 | C | 1/? | 71 | 28 (24-56) | 21 (9-34) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| (2) Evans, 198515 | C | 1/6 | 42 | 81 (28-182) | 120 (43-180) | 0.69 | 0.40 |
| (3) Heyse-Moore, 198716 | C | 1/? | 50 | 56 (33-84) | 14 (7-28) | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| (4) Maltoni, 199413 | B1 | 1/4 | 100 | 42 (28-56) | 32 (13-63) | 0.60 | 0.34 |
| (5) Maltoni, 19958 | B1 | 22/? | 530 | 42 (28-70) | 32 (13-62) | 0.70 | 0.44 |
| (6) Oxenham, 199821 | C | 1/5 | 21 | 21 (14-35) | 15 (9-25) | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| (7) Maltoni, 199914 | B1 | 14/? | 451† | 42 (21-70) | 33 (14-62) | 0.70 | 0.44 |
| (8) Christakis, 20004 | B1 | 5/343 | 326 | 77 (28-133) | 24 (12-58) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Overall | — | — | 1591 | 42 (28-84) | 29 (13-62) | 0.60 | 0.36 |
AS=actual survival; CPS=clinical prediction of survival; IQR=interquartile range; ?=number of clinicians making predictions either not published or not known.
*
According to MERGE document: B1=low-moderate risk of bias; C=high risk of bias.6
†
Included 36 patients who were censored (that is, still alive).