Table 2.
Final risk models predicting death and death or myocardial infarction from hospital admission to six month follow-up (hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals)
| Predictors | χ2 | Death model | χ2 | Death/MI model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age (per 10 year increase) | 505.7 | 1.8 (1.68 to 1.84) | 176.3 | 1.25 (1.21 to 1.29) |
| Medical history: | ||||
| Congestive heart failure | 34.2 | 1.5 (1.32 to 1.73) | 22.1 | 1.3 (1.17 to 1.45) |
| Hypertension | 8.8 | 1.2 (1.05 to 1.33) | — | |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 21.8 | 1.4 (1.21 to 1.62) | 10.5 | 1.2 (1.08 to 1.36) |
| PCI | 8.3 | 0.8 (0.64 to 0.93) | — | |
| Presentation characteristics: | ||||
| Pulse (per 30 beats/min increase) | 44.3 | 1.2 (1.16 to 1.31) | — | |
| Systolic blood pressure (per 20 mm Hg decrease) | 152.0 | 1.2 (1.22 to 1.30) | 52.9 | 1.1 (1.07 to 1.13) |
| Killip class20 (per level increase) | 142.8 | 1.5 (1.41 to 1.62) | 126.2 | 1.4 (1.30 to 1.46) |
| Initial serum creatinine (per 88 µmol/l* increase) | 135.3 | 1.2 (1.19 to 1.29) | 41.1 | 1.1 (1.08 to 1.16) |
| Initial cardiac markers or enzymes | 63.0 | 1.6 (1.42 to 1.78) | 184.3 | 1.7 (1.60 to 1.87) |
| Cardiac arrest | 58.5 | 2.6 (2.00 to 3.32) | 55.4 | 2.2 (1.76 to 2.63) |
| Findings on electrocardiography: | ||||
| ST segment deviation | 46.8 | 1.6 (1.41 to 1.88) | — | |
| Left bundle block branch | 10.0 | 1.3 (1.10 to 1.60) | — | |
| No of leads with ST segment elevation or depression | 20.1 | 1.2 (1.10 to 1.33) | 158.4 | 1.4 (1.34 to 1.49) |
| ST depression, anterior | — | 36.2 | 1.3 (1.22 to 1.47) | |
| ST depression, inferior | — | 10.8 | 1.2 (1.09 to 1.40) | |
| Other changes | — | 7.2 | 1.1 (1.04 to 1.27) | |
| Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit test | 0.30 | 0.42 | ||
| C-statistic | 0.82 | 0.70 | ||
PCI=percutaneous coronary intervention.
*Equivalent to 1 mg/dl.